Here's Another ATS Foray into the XFL's Great Unknown

It's true, we had a hot start to our fearless forecasting in XFL's Week 1 play.

Our decision to focus on QB potential and projected defensive strength came through, but this was still too small of a sample size to discount the influence of sheer luck.

How's that for truth in advertising from the handicapping sector?

 

The XFL's new rules didn't have much of an effect on the spreads yet, but it's clear this will be a strong consideration in future games when the line is under 6.

In particlular ...

• The 1-, 2-, and 3-point PAT options means a team is within a one-score striking distance if it's within 9 points;
• The five-drive overtime rules, worth a point apiece, could make close ATS spreads with hooks more interesting; and
• The five-second delay before starting the clock on a running play inside two minutes of each half is proving to really open up the field, allowing for more offensive actions.

 

If nothing else, Week 2 will double the XFL's data, starting with today's two-game schedule:

New York Guardians at DC Defenders -6½

The total lines are starting to take on some clarity already, and Bovada has set this game at 48. For now, we're still gonna focus on the ATS.

This matchup feature two teams that won in Week 1. The Defenders played like the best team in the XFL, puting a 31-19 beatdown on the Seattle Dragons. Former Ohio State Buckeye Cardale Jones dominated the Dragons with 235 yards passing and 2 TD passes.

Like Jones, Guardians’ slinger Matt McGloin also led his team to victory. McGloin completed 18-of-29 for 182 yards and a TD. New York beat Tampa Bay, 23-3. It was a huge win for the Guardians. Don’t expect them to repeat the performance, though. If Aaron Murray hadn’t thrown two picks, Tampa may have challenged. Back DC to cover.

Result: DC 27 New York 0 ... Defenders cover

 

Tampa Bay Vipers at Seattle Dragons +3

Here's your ATS dog of the day. As to the total, Bovada has set this game at 45.

Vipers’ chucker Aaron Murray and his 231 passing yards last week won't be available today. They may have a solid rushing attack in De’Veon Smith, who rumbled for 79 yards in the Week 1 loss, but the view from here is it's not gonna be enough after traveling cross-country to the Pacific Northwest.

In the loss to DC, the Dragons concentrated on stopping the run. That part of their game plan worked. The Vipers could thus be in for a long afternoon. On their defense alone, look for Seattle to win.

Result: Seattle 17 Tampa Bay 9 ... Dragons cover

***

Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 2-0 ... Overall: 6-0

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.