NCAAF Week 9 Totals Tout Analysis: Going Over What's Left

The college football mid-season is when a select few programs start seeking to make the sorta statements that'll convince the CFP Selection Committee that they're deserving of an invitation to the Featured Four.

Damn near 100 of the others are aiming for the other bowl invitations.

And a few, like Rutgers, have already packed it in.

 

Where does all of the fit into successful over/under strategies?

If there was some sorta golden formula, we'd all own a piece of Las Vegas right now. Instead, we've gotta start with a couple of basic fundamentals and season to taste.

 

Yes, let's.

I base my suggestions on the early-week lines, so before you decide to throw in with me, check where the lines are now before making a final decison.

 

Iowa at Northwestern: 39

Neither one of these squads lights it up on Saturday. Northwestern, especially, hopes to control the clock and upset the Hawkeyes in a slow game.

Iowa will oblige by trying to do the same thing to the Wildcats. The Hawkeyes win by around 11 in what should be a 17-6 battle. This one's money. Big money. Go under.

Result: Iowa 20 Northwestern 0 ... under covers

 

Syracuse at Florida State: 61

Neither team plays exceptional defense. However, neither team has a stunningly good offense, either.

In fact, this could be a dreary matchup where the score ends up 24-22, or something like that. Under.

Result: Florida State 35 Syracuse 17 ,,, under covers

 

Virginia at Louisville: 52

Louisville will try to push the pace. That’s not a good idea against a team with an excellent defense.

Then again, the Cardinals are so fast on offense, they should score at least 21 points in this. Too bad the Wahoos figure to be good for, what, 35, 40, 45? I don't see it. Under, for sure.

Result: Louisville 28 Virginia 21 ... under covers

 

Arkansas at Alabama: 60

Tua’s taking the game off to recover from ankle surgery. With the Crimson Tide getting a bye after this, expect Nick Saban to play more cautiously than he has on offense this season.

The Razorbacks simply won’t score more than 10 points while Alabama should win by around 17 to 20. That won’t come close to the over.

Result: Alabama 48 Arkansas 7 ... under covers

 

Texas Tech at Kansas: 61

Showing signs of competitive life under The Hat, Kansas has become a decent squad at home. Expect them to move the football in this matchup against a tough Texas Tech team.

The Jayhawks should score close to 30 while the Red Raiders could be good for at least 35 points. In fact, they could score 42 or more in this, which should help over backers.

Result: Kansas 37 Texas Tech 34 ... over covers

 

Boston College at Clemson: 63

The Golden Eagles used to field a pretty good defense. Not anymore. Clemson’s defense has started to gel while the offense has gotten much better since the almost-loss to North Carolina.

Our projection is the Tigers win, 45-17. That’s 62 points. So, going under.

Result: Clemson 59 Boston College 7 ... over covers

 

Notre Dame at Michigan: 53½

You’d think these two would score at will against each other on Saturday. But, to believe that, we’ve got to believe that Jim Harbaugh's offense keeps up with the Fighting Irish offense.

Sure, the Wolverines dropped 21 onto Penn State. Michigan could bounce off that effort and not move the football nearly as well in Week 9. Another under game.

Result: Michigan 45 Notre Dame 14 ... over covers

 

Arizona State at UCLA: 54½

The Bruin offense finally appears to be on track. Before getting too excited, though, it’s important to realize that the three teams where they scored at least 30 points or more were Washington State, Oregon State, and Stanford.

Herm Edwards' crew plays defense much better than any of those teams. The Sun Devils allow an average of 18.1 points per. ASU will ensure an under game.

Result: UCLA 42 Arizona State 32 ... over covers

 

California at Utah: 40

Let's keep this one as simple as it is:

The Golden Bears won’t score more than 10. The Utes consistently put up 21 to 24 points. Another under game in Week 9.

Result: Utah 35 California 0 ... under covers

 

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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 6-3

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.