NFL Week 15 ATS Hit List: Our Favorite Picks
More often than not, something somewhere in the NFL is just down-&-dirty wacky.
It can be enough for players like us to wonder how in the name of Pete Rozelle we're supposed to make any sense out of it.
Exhibit A this week -- as it's been for cetain other weeks -- is none other than the New York Jets, where it wouldn't surprise anyone to discover this dude's on their active roster:
What does it say about a club when:
- Its feature RB goes midnight bowling while he sits out an injury, and
- Its players line up to have a QB who just beat them sign autographs for them.
We figured you didn't need our help in that game, which underscored our recurring claim that favorites have been underperforming ATS and this will begin to balance out against the underdogs in 2019's late stages.
- They're inching closer, now standing at 92-112-5 for a 45.10% success rate, but
- Home favorites are still 52-76-5 -- a substandard 40.62% performance -- while
- Road favorites are 40-36-0 for a near-equilibrium 52.63% rate.
To our way of thinking -- ie- sportsbooks equate to rocket science -- seeking favorites, and especially home favorites, continues to be a priority this month.
As usual, we remind you that the lines here are based on early postings, so should you decide to take us up on any or all of our suggestions, please check where they stand before making your play.
Sun 15 Dec
New England Patriots -10½ at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati's 2-1-1 ATS in their last 4 games. The Bengals lost to Cleveland against it in Week 14, 27-19. Their offense has scored 22 and 19 in the last couple of games. That’s important to consider.
Why? The Patriots can’t seem to score any points. They struggled for 16 against Kansas City in their last outing. Cincinnati shouldn’t beat New England, but the Pats aren’t scoring enough points to cover. Road favorites don't have a statistical advantage right now, and the Bengals are trending ATS.
But, really, who thinks New England is actually gonna get threatened, here? Patriots cover because reality.
Result: New England 34 Cincinnati 13 ... Patriots cover
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans -3
Tennessee's the hottest team in the NFL. Only the Ravens can touch them on the Scoville Scale. The Titans added another win SU and ATS in Week 14 when they dominated the Raiders, 42-21. Since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback, Tennessee has scored 35, 42, 31, and 42 points.
The Texans are 6-7 ATS. They’re 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games. Titans roll to another straight up win and cover.
Result: Houston 24 Tennessee 21 ... Texans cover
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders -5½
Oakland's lost 3 in a row SU and 4 in a row ATS. Although the Raiders are awful, they should get back on the winning track here.
The Jags are worse than Oakland. In their last 4 games, opponents have outscored them, 148 to 54. Oakland gets a cover win.
Result: Jacksonville 20 Oakland 16 ... Jaguars cover
Mon 16 Dec
Indianapolis Colts +10 at New Orleans Saints
Here's a warning on what would seeme to be a no-brainer favorite. On paper, the Saints should crush Indianapolis, but their injury list has been growing too much to support a double-digit lay.
The Colts got their offense back on track in Week 14, racking up 35 in that 38-35 loss to Tampa. New Orleans almost beat San Francisco in a wild 48-46 loss. That had to take something outta them, but a top seed in the playoffs will rejuvenate them. The Saints win, and the Colts can't stay closer than 10 points.
Result: New Orleans 34 Indianapolis 7 ... Saints cover
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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 2-2
Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.