NCAAF Week 11 Totals Tout Analysis: The Under's a Wonder

In sports, there's a difference between tighten and pucker.

As the college football season drills deeper into November and backloaded schedules start to separate the wheat from the chaff, that distinction becomes evident.

Teams are now both immersed and experienced in their systems. They've tightened stuff up.

 

With that concept in mind, we're not even gonna get into pucker.

This isn't exactly a family show, here, but still, it's for the best.

 

Not all the optimum plays this weekend feature the under, but our list of totals suggestions reflects the reality that this is the time of the season that familiarity breeds grind-out games.

The lines posted reflect opening positions. Remember to check where they stand at the time you make your play, if you're so inclined.

 

Texas Tech at West Virginia: 60

The Red Raiders allow 29.4 points per, while West Virginia allows an average of 31.4 points per.

Although the averages imply this game to go over, under is the play. Texas Tech averages 30.8 points per. West Virginia averages 21.9 points per. The Red Raiders could score 30 or more. It’s hard to see the Mountaineers reaching 28.

Result: Texas Tech 38 West Virginia 17 ... under covers

Florida State at Boston College: 63

Florida State fired Willie Taggert a day after Miami decimated them. The Golden Eagles will likely score at will in this game, as they average 31.4 points per matchup.

The Seminoles football program is in disarray. That doesn’t mean they don’t score over 30 against a Boston College team with a bad defense. Emphasis on over.

Result: Florida State 38 Boston College 31 ... over covers

 

Stanford at Colorado: 53½

Things have shaken out in the Pac 12. The Buffaloes are a bad team, rebuilding yet again. Stanford is a mediocre team. Utah and Oregon are the best teams. Standings don't lie.

In this battle, Stanford will stop Colorado from scoring points. The Cardinal offense is terrible. Go under.

Result: Colorado 16 Stanford 13 ... under covers

 

Wake Forest at Virginia Tech: 64

Wake Forest plays faster than any other team in college football. The Hokies will have to keep up with the Demon Deacons.

They won’t stop Wake from scoring points, but it's doubtful they'll post enough themselves to hit the number. put this one in the under column.

Result: Virginia Tech 36 Wake Forest 17 ... under covers

 

USC at Arizona State: 58

The Sun Devils have one of the better offenses in the Pac 12. USC can score, too. They won’t push things against ASU, though.

Instead, the Trojans will just go about their business. This projects to be another under game in Week 11.

Result: USC 31 Arizona State 26 ... under covers

 

Tennessee at Kentucky: 43½

Kentucky has a very good defense while Tennessee’s made the jump from brutal to mediocre.

The more important aspect of this game concerns the offenses. Neither squad, the Vols nor the Wildcats, scores a lot of points, so I disagree with the computer simulations. This one's money the other way. Under.

Result: Tennessee 17 Kentucky 13 ... under covers

Nevada at San Diego State: 40

San Diego State has gone 7-1 by running out one of the best defenses in the nation. Opponents average 14.1 points per game against the Aztecs.

The Wolf Pack only averages 19.4 points per. The total seems low. Not low enough. Under.

Result: Nevada 17 San Diego State 13 ... under covers

 

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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 6-1

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.