The Daily Player 12: Hard Chalk Walks the Walk

Published on 7-Dec-2014 by Alan Adamsson

Football - NCAA    NCAA Football Daily Update

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The Daily Player 12: Hard Chalk Walks the Walk

In The Wizard of Oz, there Dorothy was, back in the Emerald City.

She'd been through hell.

Wicked witches. Flying monkeys. Baritone-voiced guards singing a cool tune that sounded like something the Soviet Union cooked up.

Such was her desire to get back home.

And after all that, this is what she gets from the Good Witch of the West:

Think Dorothy just wanted to bitch-slap that broad?

Which brings us to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. Little did anyone know what those dudes -- and one dudette -- were really doing.

Everyone had it backwards. They weren't choosing a Featured Four. They were merely eliminating one of the Power Five champions from the playoff bracket.

And yes, they had the power to state that more clearly all along.

So, in short: Big XII, you're out. No title game because you have less than XII members, who thus had one less chance to lose, as opposed to the other Power Five conferences. Good luck with that waiver request. And which two schools from the great unwashed are you gonna hold your nose and invite?

The Committee's Top 12 for this week actually has more intrigue in the next eight teams, one of which will be bounced in favor of Boise State for a big-bucks bowl bid:

1. Alabama   3. Florida State xxxx
2. Oregon   4. Ohio State
5. Baylor   9. Mississippi
6. TCU 10. Arizona
7. Mississippi State 11. Kansas State
8. Michigan State 12. Georgia Tech

If the process was simply to turf a champ, then why take all those weekly junkets to Dallas? Just to figure out seeding and consolation gifts?

That makes about as much sense as anything the Committee did.

Give this to them, though: Priority No 1 was conference championships. As it should be. However, it coulda been done at the mere expense of quality adult beverages and killer nachos at an upscale bar of their choosing. That's what worked here, and the Featured Four wound up being the same. Only the seedings were diffrent.

The Daily Player 12 is based on taking the Selection Committee at its word. More than its word, in fact. No opinions, just data:

  • Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
  • Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
  • Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
  • Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are. Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
  • Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

As opposed to some organizations out there, the key is what one does with the data. Like assigning simple, graded values and letting it speak for itself.

  • Standings matter. The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position. A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
  • Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
  • Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
  • If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
  • Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
  • Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

This results in The Daily Player 12:

      Stdg NC-P5   H-H   Bov   Geek   Total
  1. Florida St ...     15      9      9     6.6      7.5     47.1
  2. Alabama ...     15      3    14     7.5      6.9     46.4
  3. Oregon ...     15      3    12     7.2      7.2     43.4
  4. Ohio St ...     15      1      9     5.7      6.6     37.3
  5. Baylor ...     15      1      8     6.3      6.0     35.3
  6. TCU ...       9      3      8     6.9      6.3     33.2
  7. UCLA ...       9      6      1     4.8      5.7     26.5
  8. Arizona ...       9          5     4.8      5.4     24.2
  9. Georgia ...       9      1      6     4.8      3.0     23.8
10. Auburn ...       7      3      6     4.8      2.7     23.5
11. Michigan St ...       9      1      3     6.0      4.2     23.2
12. Arizona St ...       9      3      0     5.4      4.5     21.9

Random thoughts:

  • Shoulda ordered more beer.
  • If the Selection Committee is only gonna be a Power Five grim reaper, then the eight-team bracket can't come soon enough so the victims will be wild card hopefuls instead of champions.
  • And let this be a lesson to cupcake hunters everywhere: No brownie points in the non-con schedule means no brownies in the end.