The Daily Player 12: It's Good to Be King

The CFP promotional slogan is Who's In?

More accurately, though, it should be Who's Out?

Of course, that's the system's purpose: to separate the large-revenue big brands from Brand X.

Sure, the Power Five tosses the Other Five a bone by offering one a shot at a New Year's Day bowl.

 

The hell of it is, if the Selection Committee would add one of those blind taste tests to its deliberation process each weekend, they might find a team that ...

• Is performing better defensively than Ohio State or Oklahoma, and
• If they rack up another victory this coming weekend, will have more victories over 7-win teams (4) than any other team but one ahead of it in the rankings.

 

Actually, no.

No it won't.

 

For the record, here are the others who've beaten teams with seven wins or better:

• Notre Dame - 4
• Alabama and Michigan - 3
• Ohio State and Oklahoma - 1

Don't even start with the tougher schedule argument until more Power Five teams have the balls to play the UCF Golden Knights.

 

For the second week in a row, the Committee didn't have much else to do than run up their expense account at the spa and twiddle their respective diddles:

That's actually the CFP Selection Committee getting their expense account to luxuriate at the spa this week and then spew out the exact same top eight teams as the week before:

1. Alabama	3. Notre Dame
2. Clemson	4. Michigan
5. Georgia	9. UCF
6. Oklahoma	10. Ohio State
7. LSU	11. Florida
8. Washington State	12. Penn State

 

Well, look who's at No 9.

Someone got tossed a bone from 'way up there in the ivory tower.

 

The Daily Player 12 is based on taking the Selection Committee's objective criteria literally. More than literally, in fact. No opinions, just data.

It considers all FBS teams with two losses or less after Week 12:

• Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
• Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
• Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
• Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are. Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
• Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

 

'Til everyone else comes to their senses -- ie- figures out a way to expand the bracket to eight teams -- we apparently are.

And on a beer-&-nachos budget during happy hour at the local dive bar.

Because we don't need no stinkin' spa to add, multiply, and rank.

 

Damn right. We outsource.

The Daily Player 12 rankings are calculated on tangible fact:

• Standings matter. The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position. A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
• Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
• Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
• If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
• Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
• Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

Incidentally, our poll has movement, involving the teams who played a worthy foe last weekend:

Right now, you're probably asking yourself ...

• Notre Dame? ... In all of FBS history, the Fighting Irish and USC are the only programs never to play an FCS school. It shows up in the non-con column when you're having a season.
• The Big XII trio? ... Until further notice, it's the future of football, dudes and dudettes. They're just ahead of the curve and shouldn't be penalized for it.

 

• Alabama? ... We'll talk to the Citadel and get back to you.
• Wazzu? ... Same problem as UCF. The Cougs can't get home-&-homes against Power Fives.

So, how many rolls of the dice would it take for the Golden Knights -- assuming they win out -- to squeeze into the Anointed Four?

A lot.

While you're counting the ways, don't be a heathen. Enjoy the journey of probability with a cool one plus accoutrements:

 

For the record, here's what the Geeks have to say, based solely on games played to date, which is what the Committee's supposed to be doing:

Kinda looks more like The Daily Player 12 than the high-priced spread.

Odds are, by Championship Weekend, they'll all look pretty similar. All that's needed is a bigger bracket.