The Shot Dude: Prediction Day

Published on 05-Dec-2015 by MunkeBiz8
NHL / NHL Daily Stake

Here's hoping the puck doesn't hit the crystal.

Sometimes the best way to construct your fantasy roster is by mapping out the path you think the NHL games will take.

Even though your favorite Shot Dude doesn't always share his opinions on individual game scores, thate thought process is used every time I write this feature. 

Let's use today's article as a teaching tool. I'll walk you through how score predictions are made and why each player is chosen as a recommedation to use in your fantasy lineup.

The first step is always to look at the Vegas line for each game which is easily viewed by using the Bovada data tool on our Home page:

NHL schedule 5 Dec 2015

Next, see which players from the higher total games you can get for a cheaper price on the fantasy site you are playing.

Your favorite Shot Dude always includes FanDuel pricing because they're the best site to play.

Keep a lookout for proven players who are slumping or skaters just coming back from injury, as they're most likely to be priced down. There also might be some positive history a certain skater has against a team that you can use to your benefit.

And now, on to today's players and a prediction for each of their games.

Forwards

Zach Parise, Minnesota ($8700) ... falls into two of the categories we're seeking. Dude's a proven point scorer who's not producing like he should. Parise gets off over 3 shots per game but has been slumping in the goal scoring department lately. You can expect this to change, and it could be today. Parise has a great history against Colorado with 23 points in 20 career games. The last time these two teams met was opening night when he notched a hat trick, the third in his career. Prediction: 4-1 Wild win with Parise, Mikael Gradlund, and Ryan Suter being heavily involved in the scoring.

Daniel Sedin, Vancouver ($8400) ... is a player as valuable to his team as Tyler Seguin is to Dallas or Alex Ovechkin is to Washington, but at a much lower hit to your salary cap. Sedin shoots just under 4 times per game on average and has been on fire recently with at least 1 point in 9 of his last 10. The 7 goals and 7 assists in those last 10 have moved Daniel to fourth among the NHL's top point producers. Although they have a solid road record, Boston has lost their last two and will be playing their third road game in four days. Prediction: A 3-2 Vancouver victory with Sedin and Jannik Hansen picking up points.

Boston v Vancouver

Joel Ward, San José ($3600) ... is priced way down now, and it has your Shot Dude puzzled. Dude plays on the second scoring line but the Sharks' top power play line and has 5 power play points. He's heating up with points in 5 of his last 6 games and has scored 9 goals this season on only 40 shots taken. Tampa Bay is in the midst of a three-game West Coast swing and has lost teo of their last three. Prediction: A 3-1 San José triumph with Ward and Patrick Marleau as your game heros.

Defensemen

Ryan Suter, Minnesota ($4300) ... is another player who's priced 'way too cheaply for all he does on the ice. Dude's average ice time is 28:13, which is almost a full minute more than the next highest skater in all the NHL. He has 2 or more shots in 7 of his last 9 games and scored at least 1 point in 6 of 10. Since he's the leader of the Wild's No 1 power play, Suter has accumulated 8 power play points this season. A 2 assist game for Suter against the Avs today would not surprise me in the aforementioned prediction of a 4-1 Minnesota win.

Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia ($3500) ... is a player who's really producing but with whom some fantasy players are not familar enough yet. Gostisbehere is averaging 2.5 shots per game and has 7 points in the 10 he's played for the Flyers. Dude's been elevated to Philly's top power play unit and has 5 power play points and 2 game-winning goals already. At this rate, Ghost Bear won't be $3500 for long, so using him in a good matchup at home is a must today. Columbus comes in scoring only 1 goal in 3 straight games. Prediction:  A 3-0  shutout for Philly with Gostisbehere notching a point in his 3rd straight game.

Goaltender

Petr Mrazek, Detroit ($8600) ... is a starter in a great situation tonight on home ice against Nashville. Dude has a great chance to pick up a win and maybe even a shutout due to his strong play at home and the Predators' deficient goal scoring of late. Mrazek has 3 home wins and a .929 save percentage at home while Nashville has only scored 1 goal or has been shutout in 5 of their last 7 games. Detroit's offense is riding high by averaging almost 4 goals in each of their last 4 home games. Prediction: A Red Wing 4-0 success and second shutout of the year for Mrazek.

Nashville v Detroit

Your favorite Shot Dude hopes you have an understanding of how I select players for this feature and, as a result, you win some prediction day dosh.

FanDuel scorecard

Keep in mind that winning can only happen when you take your best shot!

You can follow me on twitter@fsofia8

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