Propping Up the NFL Season
On the eve of the NFL season, we will go a different route today and offer up some suggestions for one of the more popular NFL prop bets of the pre-season.
The over/under on team win totals.
It's always such a tough proposition because unknown factors like injuries and 'Cinderella' seasons can be difficult to forecast, but here we go with a few I really like.
First of all, there's the Detroit Lions' win total of 8. I think this will be a tough season for Jim Schwartz's team, with tremendous talent on offense, but still some questions defensively. It doesn't help when your defense is forced to face (barring injury) the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson twice a season.
Then there's the schedule, which is rather difficult right out of the gate.
The Lions will play three of their first five on the road in Arizona, Washington, and Green Bay. Theirtwo early home games aren't exactly 'gimmies,' either, when they host the Vikings and Bears. Other non-division games later in the season include trips to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Scary. Then factor their divisional games with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago, and I see 8 a tough number for this team to achieve.
Look for this to be a below-.500 season for the Lions. Bovada's under 8 is currently at even money, which also makes this a solid value play.
I also think the 49ers' 11 win total is high. Don't get me wrong; this is a very good team that could go a long way, but 11 in the regular season is a lot to ask with their schedule, not to mention the fact that they are now a moving target as defending NFC champs. Their division has gone from inept to very tough, as well, with possible Super Bowl contender Seattle besides potential darkhorses St. Louis and Arizona.
Beyond the six divisional games, San Francisco has are tough trips to New Orleans and Washington (not to mention in back-to-back weeks), with brutally tough home games against the Packers, Colts, Texans, and Falcons.
That's probably why Bovada's asking you to lay -140 to play the under here, but I say it's worth it. Again, the Niners are a solid team, but they're playing a brutal schedule, making 11 seem like an awfully tough number to crack.
We'll stay in the NFC West for our over play, and that's on Arizona. 6 wins is all that's needed to cash in here and I think they will find them.
The Cards caught a break, getting AFC South opponents Houston and Indianapolis at home and facing Tennessee and Jacksonville on the road. Just break down the math and figure if they split in their games with the AFC South and then win three games in their division, they only need one more win to get to 6. And with their home dates against the Lions and Panthers and a winnable trip to Tampa, I think a six-win season is definitely in the Cards.
My picks: Detroit Lions under 8 wins even
San Francisco 49ers under 11 wins -140
Arizona Cardinals over 5.5 wins -160
Not to leave out you baseball betting junkies, the Angels are a great Wednesday play against the Rays at -140.
My pick: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -140