Friday Night (High) Lights

OK, let's get the cliche out of the way now: It's going to be an old fashioned shoot-out in the Lone Star state.

Done, out of the way.

But what else is there to say about Friday's match-up between Texas Tech and SMU? Total watchers have seen this one climb little-by-little the last couple of days, and I don't think Bovada's 61 is still high enough here.

SMU starts Garrett Gilbert at the quarterback position, and the University of Texas transfer finished the 2012 campaign strong, guiding his team to a 43-10 victory over Fresno State in the Hawaii Bowl. Gilbert not only went interception-free that day, but did the same in his last few. And his lofty total of 15 picks stopped well before the end of the season, indicating his comfortabilty in the SMU offense.

That should only be helped by the addition of offensive guru Hal Mumme joining the SMU staff as an assistant with the Mustang passing game. Gilbert will have ample opportunities to toss the ball around against a Texas Tech defense that gave up an almost unheard of 52 points in four of it's last seven games.

That clearly helped Texas Tech cash in for over players during the last several games of their season. Take a look at the Bovada data tool on our Home page and you will see the over hit in six of Tech's final seven games last season. It also has hit in six of their last seven road games. And with Tech's secondary made up of four brand new starters, we can't expect things will be much better. At least not yet.

All week, I have been harping on SMU here, especially with the news that true freshman Baker Mayfied will start at quarterback for Tech, filling in for the injured Michael Brewer. But after watching all the last game antics in Fresno last night, I have decided not to sweat out a side and just know whoever wins or loses, the scoreboard operator had better not blink and the band members should start saving breath now, as they will all be busy doing their jobs toucdown after touchdown.

My pick:  Texas Tech at SMU     over 61

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UPDATE:

Result ... Texas Tech 41 Southern Methodist 23     Total points = 64     over covers

Steve Soprano is the founder and handicapper for www.premierticketsports.com.