The Colts Need Luck in Kansas City This Weekend

This is gonna be a clash of contrasts in more ways than one.

The red-hot Indianapolis Colts will be setting up shop in ice-cold Kansas City, and we're not referring to the Chiefs.

Temperatures at game time are supposed to be hovering around freezing. For an indoor-based team, that can't be comfortable, especially as the NFL doesn't allow boda bags on the sidelines.

That's a bummer. 7Up-&-Bourbon is a great winter warmer, one way or another.

 

However, the snow that's predicted to fall Friday night and Saturday morning is expected to be gone by the afternoon.

Bovada has the line set at Kansas City -5 with the total being 57 and the moneyline at Indianapolis +175 and Kansas City -210.

Here's how the computers see it:

Why bet on Indianapolis ...

It's an understatement to say the Colts are on a roll. Usually, a 1-5 start to an NFL season would be devastating, but dudes have gone 9-1 since, including that impressive 21-7 playoff win at Houston last week.

Start with props to the defense. Since the Colts got onto their winning ways, they’ve limited foes to just 15.55 points per game.

RB Marlon Mack's return in Week 6 was huge, as his productivity kept defenses honest. That, of course, allowed QB Andrew Luck more time to pick them apart.

Why bet on the Chiefs ...

Because Patrick Mahomes II.

The SuperChief threw for the second-most yards this season at 5097 and had the most passing TDs at 50, which was 11 more than second-place Luck. Kansas City pounded teams all year, racking up an average of 35.3 points per game, the highest in the NFL.

They've needed every damn one of them, too. Defensively, the Chiefs gave up the ninth-most points per game at 26.

More so, the scoring had to come via the pass. Kansas City's ground game -- even before Kareem Hunt was cut for really bad behavior -- has been average, and that's on a good day. But air mail works for them.

 

And yes, this is a rematch of that playoff game five years ago, when the Colts stormed back from 28 points down to edge the Chiefs, 45-44:

 

Instant analysis ...

Remember earlier this season when the Rams and Chiefs teed it up? Bovada set the total at 64, and the over still covered.

Cool weather or no, the green visors drew an historic line in the sand for this one. That 57 total is the highest ever for a playoff game.

 

It might be wise to look elsewhere to look for value, so ATS, here we come!

• Kansas City wrapped up the regular season 1-4 ATS, while Indianapolis went 4-1.
• What's more, the Colts were 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• They're also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against the Chiefs, and that includes going 7-1 against them on the road.

The data's rather one-sided, so who are we to tip the scales?

ATS pick: Indianapolis +5

Result: Kansas City 31 Indianapolis 13 ... Chiefs cover

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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.