NFL Week 6 ATS Hit List: Dealing with the Dog Days
The NFL is nothing but a being of norms.
Its scheduling format is conducive to a whole lotta teams landing somewhere between 9-7 and 7-9 when all is said and done, keeping hope alive for as many fan bases as possible.
Similarly and obviously, the sportsbooks do all they can to ensure a .500 record for both favorites and underdogs.
Ironically, that's what we're all trying to avoid, aren't we?
We look for vanilla trends and try to capitalize on them in order to finish ahead of the game.
This season, for example, the ATS underdogs are 46-32-1 coming into Week 7. What's more, home teams are 30-48-1 against the spread.
Doesn't it figure that, sooner or later, the favorites are gonna rise up and even these out?
Therefore, in a league that tries its damnedest to pull teams back to even, we're going to continue our valiant quest to determine which favorites will lead the way in what the NFL wants to be a tendency.
Except for one. Kinda.
Just remember to view our suggestions against the lines available when you make your play. Things do change, you know.
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins +3½
Washington played the New England Patriots super tough for a full half in Week 5. But, then, as it does in every football game, the second half happened. New England pummeled DC’s team, 33-7.
Don’t expect Washington to get down on themselves, though. They should still cover against the worst team in the NFL, right?
Then again, there’s nothing that tells us Miami is a worse team than Washington.
The Dolphins head into Week 6 off their bye. That alone should give them some confidence. They also take on DC at home. Washington should beat the Dolphins and cover. However, the Fins will play with enthusiasm while the 'Skins most definitely won’t.
Result: Washington 17 Miami 16 ... Dolphins cover
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings -3
Those three points could mean a lot in this matchup. Minnesota dominated the New York Giants, 28-10, while Philadelphia looked good spanking the New York Jets. We don’t even have to consider the Eagles-Jets score because the Jets are so very bad.
One thing we must consider is how well Minnesota’s defense has played. The Vikings allow 292.4 total yards and only 14.6 points per. So, even though this game is a tough one to handicap, Minnesota’s superior defense should be what leads to a win and cover.
Result: Minnesota 38 Philadelphia 20 ... Vikings cover
New Orleans Saints -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
This line is woefully low, given how well Saints’ backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater played in Week 5. Facing a hungry Tampa defense, Bridgewater carved them up like a Thanksgiving turkey. Dude threw for 312 yards and tossed 4 TD passes.
Saints’ coach Sean Payton finally let the former Louisville and Minnesota Vikings quarterback loose. Did he respond or what? The Jaguars have their own strong, young, good-looking slinger in Gardner Minshew. But, Gardner doesn’t have the weapons Teddy’s got. Saints cover, but Mike Leach's prodigy remains a cultural icon.
Result: New Orleans 13 Jacksonville 6 ... Saints cover
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens -10½
Lamar Jackson has some flaws in his game, no doubt. Still, dude’s got something that many QBs don’t: a closer’s mentality. He threw three picks against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers last week and had every right to get down on himself. Instead, Jackson rallied the Ravens to a big 26-23 straight-up overtime road win in Steel Town.
Jackson should have no trouble running and throwing against a Cincinnati squad that appears to have already thrown in the towel. Playing at home, the Bengals were favored over the Arizona Cardinals. They let Lamar’s mini-me -- Kyler Murray -- throw for 253 yards and rush for 93 yards and a TD. The real Lamar should do more damage than that on Sunday. Ravens, evermore.
Result: Baltimore 23 Cincinnati 17 ... Bengals cover
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals +2½
Yes, we're hunting for favorites, but like the first game on this list, sometimes it's a bridge too far.
Atlanta’s horrible. No, they’re straight-up bad. It’s difficult to understand how a team that’s 1-4 SU and ATS and that allowed 30.4 points per -- before counting the 53 they allowed in Week 5 -- is favored over a slightly below-average team like Arizona on the road.
The Cardinals should score at will against the Falcons while -- let’s be real, here -- the ATL is more fried chicken than hunting falcons right now. Take the points all day in this matchup.
Result: Arizona 34 Atlanta 33 ... Cardinals cover
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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 4-1
Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.