NFL Week 2 ATS Hit List - Tackling the Big Lines
Given the assumption that professionals allegedly know what they're doing, it's still stunning to see double-digit disparities in the NFL.
Maybe, though, it's because some teams know what they're doing.
Like tanking.
It's the scourge of pro sports, but when a success like the Houston Astros in MLB launches a dynasty, you know organizations in all leagues are gonna take the bait and give it a go themselves.
Since the start of the 2014 season, there have been 34 instances of teams losing by double-digit points in Week 1 and their record is 21-12-1 ATS for Week 2.
The seven teams that lost by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
With all that in mind, here's our list of suggestions for ATS plays that oughta be worth hitting:
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens -13½
Arizona rallied for a 27-27 tie against the Detroit Lions. Kyler Murray threw 54 passes. It was like he was back in Norman and facing Oklahoma State. However, dude's still a rookie.
Baltimore dominated the worst team in the NFL, the Dolphins, but they still dominated. Lamar Jackson is already an MVP contender after throwing for over 300 yards and 5 touchdowns. Will I get punished by defying the stats and going against the mathematical grain here?
We'll find out. I'm thinking the Ravens roll to at least a 17-point win.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Result: Baltimore 23 Arizona 17 ... Cardinals cover
New England Patriots -14½ at Miami Dolphins
This one's even more tempting to lay the shipload of points, so let's first take a breath and actually look at the math of Week 1 double-digit losers bouncing back in Week 2 by keeping games close or winning outright (52.9% over last five years):
The thing is, these Dolphins are built to tank, and it looks like they'll succeed beyond their wildest dreams. Just know you're really going against the grain, but since they're facing Emperor Palpatine's NFL Death Star, not even the computer simulator's gonna disagree with you:
Talk about dichotomy of stats! However, we happen to be existentialists. We're into the here and now.
If you get anything close to the opening line, jump on it. Seriously. I’m not sure the Dolphins could beat Tennessee or Vanderbilt, much less Auburn, Alabama, Georgia or Florida.
Pick: New England Patriots
Result: New England 48 Miami 0 ... Patriots cover
Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Oakland Raiders
Here’s another line to jump all over, but conventionally. Why would anyone believe Patrick Mahomes doesn’t carve up Oakland like a Christmas turkey this season the way he did last season? Mahomes was on point in Week 1 with ridiculous passes to Sammy Watkins.
This is one of those heated rivalries that goes back to the AFL days, and it's for real. Here we are with another home dog getting lotsa points, and the computer says math's gonna catch up with its deniers:
The historical trends are slightly unnerving, but a home dog in a rivalry game? Can't do it. Not as hot as Mahomes is.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Result: Kansas City 28 Oakland 10 ... Chiefs cover
Dallas Cowboys -6½ at Washington Redskins
Washington looked like world-beaters in the first half against Philadelphia. Then, the Eagles totally flipped the script. The Cowboys played -- and we’re not being facetious -- like one of the top teams in the NFL in Week 1.
Dak Prescott threw for 405 yards and 4 paydirt passes without a pick. Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper were awesome. This is a big-time Cowboys cover.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Result: Dallas 31 Washington 21 ... Cowboys cover
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers -4½
The Seahawks beat Cincinnati 21-20 in Week 1, but, whoa, they’ve got issues in the secondary. Still, the line on this game is too high.
Jadeveon Clowney had a sack against the Bengals, and they just acquired him this week. Seattle might not win, but they should cover the spread.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Result: Seattle 28 Pittsburgh 26 ... Seahawks cover
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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 4-1
Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.