The Boca Raton Bowl Could Be One for the Rats

There are times in life when you confront a set of facts and ask yourself:

What am I missing here?

Especially when those facts are coming from the pros from Dover, ie- those down-&-dirty dudes at the sportsbooks who put their own money on the line every time they post numbers.

So what are they seeing in the Boca Raton Bowl that we aren't?

 

Beyond a doubt, Bovada knows of what they speak, but for some reason, they've set this line at SMU -7½ with the total at 64 and the moneyline at SMU -270 and FAU +220.

To top it off, here's what the computer says after doing the multiple-simulation thing:

Why bet on Southern Methodist University ...

What's not to like about the Mustangs under Sonny Dykes?

Dude's developed Texas transfer Shane Buechele into a passing machine. The only game he didn't throw for at least 200 yards was the season-ender at Tulane, and all he did there was toss 3 TD's. Balancing things out, Xavier Jones ran for 1,249 yards for 21 TDs, and caught another 21 he took to the house.

What's more, SMU's defense led Division I in sacks, nailing opposing slingers 105 times.

 

Why bet on Florida Atlantic University ...

Lane Kiffin is as elite a recruiter as he is an online troll. Dude's stocked the Owls with some serious talent, and he put together enough of a season with it to now land the Ole Miss job.

Thus, he won't be at the bowl game, but his defense will be. FAU may give up yards, but they make up for it in timely plays. They led the nation in takeaways with 31. They stuff the run well -- only allowing five 100-yard games in their last ten -- that they can force a team to be one-dimensional. That's when they pounce.

Former Sooner slinger Chris Robison isn't a stat-churner, but like the Owl D, he makes big plays thanks to a receiving corps that can go get it when the rubber meets the road.

 

Instant analysis ...

The head coach doesn't formulate a game plan on his own, but he's usually the dude whose game management skills can make a difference. Kiffin has a knack for that, and now he's not there.

Boca Raton is Spanish for rat's mouth, and that could well be the taste FAU has in theirs for this one. That's where the university is located, and all the team got for a 10-3 season is another home game. Really, where's the holiday reward in that?

Worse, a slew of their starters have been suspended for this game. What can interim coach Glenn Spencer say about that -- and being passed over for the full-time job in favor of Willie Taggert -- but rats!

The Owls are a big-play team on both sides of the ball. SMU's gonna give them lotsa chances to make them, too. However, it says here that FAU's lost its edginess for this one, and they won't keep up with the Mustangs.

ATS pick: SMU -7½

Result: Florida Atlantic 52 SMU 28 ... Owls cover

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Sportbet Columnist: Noah Williams

Noah lives and works with a simple philosophy of “Eat, Drink, Football.” This is embodied through a dedication to satellite TV, Indian delivery, Folgers in his cup, and Budweiser. He lives in a secret lair with his beautiful concubine.