NCAAF Championship Week Totals Tout Analysis: For Some, It's Gonna Be Over

With one last week for teams to make their bowl game -- and their College Football Playoff case to the Selection Committee -- it could lead to a lot of high scoring games.

That's our theory, and we're sticking with it.

College football is usually a celebration of wide-open play anymore, and there's no reason why that won't carry over to the championship games.

 

With a season's worth of stats under their collective belt, the sportsbooks have tightened up the numbers this weekend. However, one way or another, the winning teams have managed to still exceed totals expectations.

That's what we think will happen again this week.

 

As always, the lines here are based on early-week sportsbook postings.

Should you agree with our thoughts, please check the current numbers before making any decisions.

 

Miami-Ohio vs Central Michigan: 53

The over is 6-6 in Miami-Ohio games this season. The Redhawks average 24.6 points per and allow 28.8. That being the case, the under is 4-1 in Miami-Ohio’s last 5 games.

In the MAC Championship, the Redhawks will pull out all the stops. Will it be enough for this title game to go over? Yes, because the over is 9-3 in matchups with the Chippewas.

Result: Miami-Ohio 26 Central Michigan 21 ... under covers

 

UAB at Florida Atlantic: 48½

An offensive team and a defensive squad battle for the Conference-USA Championship. The Owls average 34.1 points per game and surrender 23.3 per.

Alabama-Birmingham averages 25.1 points per, while opponents average 18.5 against the Blazers.

This is Lane Kiffin's swan song at FAU before he takes the reins at Ole Miss. Odds are he'll pull out every trick in the book to go out a winner. It'll boost the chances of an over prevailing.

Result: Florida Atlantic 49 UAB 6 ... over covers

Georgia vs LSU: 56½

Georgia won’t keep up on the scoreboard. That doesn’t mean this goes under. The Bulldogs average 32.9 points per game. LSU averages over 48 per.

The Tigers could get the over by themselves. QB Joe Burrow threw for 4,388 yards this season, producing 44 touchdown passes. Dude only threw 6 interceptions and completes 78.3% of his passes.

LSU should blow out Georgia on Saturday. The Bulldogs will score at least 24, though. Go over.

Result: LSU 37 Georgia 10 ... under covers

 

Wisconsin vs Ohio State: 52½

Oddsmakers set a tricky total in the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State should cover the -15½, but by how many points?

Their defense allows 11.8 points per and held Wisconsin to 7 in the first matchup. The Buckeyes should beat Wisconsin by over 30, but the Badgers should pitch in at least 10 points. If Ohio State scores 43, the game goes over.

Result: Ohio State 34 Wisconsin 21 ... over covers

 

Virginia vs Clemson: 54½

Clemson hasn’t allowed more than 3 points in two straight. The Tigers beat Wake Forest, 52-3, and South Carolina, 38-3.

Dabo has turned the screws. Although Clemson should have another monster defensive game on Saturday, this goes over. The Wahoos won’t score. Clemson scores at will.

Result: Clemson 62 Virginia 17 ... over covers

 

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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 3-2

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.