LSU-Mississippi State's Gonna Be a Hard Yards Clash

It used to be that LSU checked their schedule for the Mississippi State game.

Once they found the date, they wrote a big W next to it, and for good reason. From 2000-2013, the Tigers won 14 straight.

The Bulldogs ended that streak with a 34-29 victory in Tiger Stadium in 2014. Since then, they've split four games, including last year. That's when Mississippi State crushed LSU, 37-7, in Starkville. So ...

 

That beatdown last season was the Bulldogs' first victory in Stark Vegas since 1999, and it was the program’s largest margin of victory over a ranked opponent since 1942.

Bovada has set the spread at LSU -6½ and the total at 46.

Why bet on the Bulldogs ...

On paper, Mississippi State is a better defensive team than LSU. The Bulldogs lead the Tigers in key areas this season, including sack rate, tackles for loss, and third-down defense.

In last year's upset, they were powered by 285 rushing yards. The question, though, is whether that's enough offense to support their aggressive defense and warrant picking Mississippi State over LSU?

 

Why bet on the Tigers ...

LSU put themselves in the thick of the CFP picture after their 36-16 blowout upset over then second-ranked Georgia. Now the Tigers are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS; that includes other impressive upset wins over Miami and Auburn.

Moreover, the Tigers may be the most balanced team in Division I. So far this season, LSU's rushed for 1,415 yards and passed for 1,415 yards.

 

Instant analysis ...

Mississippi State is 4-0 against the spread in their last four head-to-head matchups against LSU. However, the Tigers are 16-2 straight up in their previous 18 games against the Bulldogs. The tight spread could fall either way.

The Bulldogs have the nation's best scoring defense, allowing only 12.7 points per game. The Tigers' defense is ranked 17th in points allowed at 16.9. This will be a low-scoring game.

Total pick: Under 46

Result: LSU 19 Mississippi State 3 ... Under covers

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Sportbet Columnist: Noah Williams

Noah lives and works with a simple philosophy of “Eat, Drink, Football.” This is embodied through a dedication to satellite TV, Indian delivery, Folgers in his cup, and Budweiser. He lives in a secret lair with his beautiful concubine.