Mid-Season Progress Report: Bovada Win Props
The All-Star break occurs slightly after the actual halfway point of the season, which is ample time to take accurate note of how teams are trending.
For example, this is a perfect time to check on the status of Bovada's season win total props.
Here's where they stand, complete with what is required over the balance of the season for each to cover the chalk:
|AL East||Yankees||88.5||51-44||37.5||38-29 .567|
|Blue Jays||87.5||45-49||42.5||43-25 .632|
|Red Sox||82.5||58-39||24.5||25-40 .385|
|AL Central||Tigers||92.5||52-42||40.5||41-27 .603|
|White Sox||80.5||37-55||43.5||44-26 .629|
|AL West||Angels||92.5||44-49||48.5||49-20 .710|
|NL East||Nationals||92.5||48-47||44.5||45-22 .672|
|NL Central||Reds||91.5||53-42||38.5||39-28 .582|
|NL West||Dodgers||91.5||47-47||34.5||35-33 .515|
Teams looking to cruise their way to covering would be those who need merely to win out at a pace of .425 or worse. This group includes the Red Sox, Orioles, Indians, Twins, Athletics, and Astros (!) in the American League.
Over in the senior circuit, the teams most likely to cover include the Marlins (!), Cardinals, Pirates, and Rockies.
Meanwhile, any team needing a winning clip of .600 or better is on life support in the prop world. Only a run like the A's had in 2002 or the Rockies in 2007 will put their backers at the payout window.
Naturally, such figures and projections give rise to random thoughts like these:
- The Marlins and Astros might actually be considered to be overachievers. Miami has been respectable since their inept -- and expected -- brutal start to the season. Full marks to manager Mike Redmond and the team's front office. The same can be said for Astros skipper Bo Porter and Houston's suits.
- The true message from Houston's and Miami's standing, though, is a new appreciation for how incredibly incompetent those 1962 Mets were.
- And that puts the foibles of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders into the incomprehensible category, although the cause of their rot was self-inflicted.
- Albert Pujols, CJ Wilson, and Josh Hamilton are living proof that WAR stats must be handled carefully.
- The Pirates have collapsed in September twice in a row, now. Have they finally got the dog-day choke mode out of their system?
- Summarily dismiss the Moneyballing A's at your peril.
- Is Joe Maddon the coolest manager in baseball or what? And the Rays organization is like Oakland East.
- It's often overlooked that the St Louis Cardinals are a small-market team. Full marks, then, for keeping their build-from-within policy efficiently successful.
Other storylines abound. Boston's back. San Francisco's creaky. Buck Showalter's now winning with a fourth team. Yasiel Puig's start makes him this year's Jay Bruce, but since it's happening in Los Angeles, he gets more notice.
While all this is easy to say now, here's a statement that's even easier to make:
Back before the 2013 season began, those who dared won. Or will do so soon.