NCAAF Week 8 Totals Tout Analysis: Where the Smart Money Relaxes

For those looking to lay a bitta action on the weekend, a useful exercise right around midweek is to figure out what the smart money is doing.

That's the cash that the pros from Dover -- dudes who do this for a living -- are playing.

The trick, though, is how to find them and figure out just where that money is, because those dudes are smooth operators.

 

Here are three telltale signs that smart money is in action:

• Rapidly moving odds ... This is an indication that the pros think there's a mistake in the line. Perhaps public sentiment has overloaded one side that doesn't coincide with their calculations. In these instances, they'll pounce swiftly and surely.
• Overload on one team ... When overwhelming action goes to one side but the line moves to make that side more attractive, what that's saying is the small number of bettors on the less popular team have bet more money than the large number of bettors on the popular team.
• The line's steady on a high-profile game ... The pros are validating that line's accuracy, so any deciding factors are down to your preferences.

 

Our suggested picks are based on the week's early lines, so when you check their current status and see major movement, you're staring at the effect of smart money.

If it's moving in the direction that matches our thoughts, odds are you're on a heavy play.

 

With that in mind, here's what we see as the best bets for those who like to play the totals:

Arizona State at Utah: 48½

The Sun Devils have played like one of the Pac 12's top teams. They’ve done so behind a defense that allows 17.7 points per. The Utes only allow 13.2 points per.

The real key will be how ASU’s defense plays against Utah’s offense. Kyle Whittingham's crew is too talented on defense to let the Sun Devils score a lot of points. If ASU’s D plays well, this goes under.

Result: Utah 21 Arizona State 3 ... under covers

 

Kansas at Texas: 61½

A couple of teams have really exposed the Jayhawks’ defense in their last couple of games. TCU dropped 51 on them on 28 Sep. Oklahoma scored 45 on 5 Oct.

The Longhorns should score close to 50 because they play Kansas at home. Even though the computer simulations think differently, I think that'll be enough for the over.

Result: Texas 50 Kansas 48 ... over covers

Tulsa at Cincinnati: 49½

The Golden Hurricane -- don't they get tornadoes in Oklahoma? -- only averages 23.3 points per, and that’s against suspect competition.

However, the Bearcats could roll over them with 42, maybe even 48 points. Over.

Result: Cincinnati 24 Tulsa 13 ... under covers

 

Tennessee at Alabama: 62

Sure, the Volunteers are saying this game means everything to them, but being real, it'll be a moral victory if they wind up covering. For the little it's worth on a play like this, they'll do so here with Bama's help.

Tennessee will probably get around 10 to 14 points in garbage time while the Crimson Tide racks up over 50. Over again.

Result: Alabama 35 Tennessee 13 ... under covers

 

Colorado at Washington State: 71

Neither one of these squads plays much defense. It’s hard to sign off on the over, though, because we’re talking at least 35 points from each team.

That's realistic for the Cougars, but it’s asking an awful lot from the Buffaloes on the raod, where offense stagnated at Oregon. Take the under.

Result: Washington State 41 Colorado 10 ... under covers

 

Kentucky at Georgia: 48

Incredibly, the Bulldogs haven't shown much of a passing attack this season. On the other side, Kentucky’s offense only averages 23.5 per.

The Dawgs want to make a statement, which means they won’t allow Kentucky to post more than 10. UGA could be good for over 30. If so, they’d be the first team the Wildcats have faced that'll have scored over 30 against them.

This should be an under game all the way.

Result: Georgia 21 Kentucky 0 ... under covers

 

Baylor at Oklahoma State: 64½

You’d think we’d be looking at another over game. However, Baylor plays very good defense. They outlasted Texas Tech, 33-30, in overtime last week.

The Bears average allowed is only 17.8. It'll thus be tough sledding for the Cowboys. This game goes under.

Result: Baylor 45 Oklahoma State 27 ... over covers

 

Boise State at BYU: 50½

The Cougars don’t score a lot of points. Boise State could get the over all by themselves. The Broncos are the top non-Power 5 squad in the nation. They average 37 points and have scored 38 or more in three of their six victories.

Undefeated Boise State scores 35-42, while BYU posts at least 17 in this over matchup.

Result: BYU 28 Boise State 25 ... over covers

 

 

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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey ... Today: 5-3

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sportswriting, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sportswriter of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.