Don't Be Confused by the Mixed Signals.

One of the great things about this site is the Bovada data tool and the wealth of information you can find after accessing it through our Home page.

With that in mind, one could be a little confused by looking at tonight's football game between Florida State and Pittsburgh. 

Case in point: there's Florida State's 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 games. However, the Seminoles are 7-1 straight up in their last eight and 8-1 in their last nine on the road.

But wait! They also haven't covered in their last six on the road as favorites. Put it all together, and the signals could be as mixed and confusing as a Peyton Manning audible at the line of scrimmage.

Well, tonight, the signals are clear to me, and this one should be easy.

Florida State rolls and covers the number that Bovada has at 11½.

While they did lose quarterback EJ Manuel, the Seminoles lost little else. And replacing Manuel is a guy that could end up being even better in Jameis Winston. One of the country's top recruits a year ago, he redshirted last season and got to observe Manuel up close for a full season. And again, Winston has plenty of familiar faces around him in returning strarters.

On the other side of the ball, it's a totally different story. Pitt brings back very little in what is undoubtedly a rebuilding year for them. The Panthers do have an experienced quarterback in Arizona transfer Tom Savage, but it's been four years since he last played in a game.

Besides that, Pitt lost their top two running backs from last season and plenty more.

This one breaks the string of six straight games not covering as road favorites. Most of the public thinks so, too, as the number is rising rapidly.

The public is right on this one. The Noles roll.

My pick:  Florida State   -11.5

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UPDATE:

Result ... Florida State 41 Pittsburgh 13     Seminoles cover

Steve Soprano is the founder and handicapper for www.premierticketsports.com