The Mug Does Not Runneth Over ... At Least, Not with Runs.

Published on 26-Jul-2013 by Steve Soprano

MLB    MLB Daily Stake

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The Mug Does Not Runneth Over ... At Least, Not with Runs.

Tuesday, we called the under in the Rockies game with Miami, and we're going right back to the ballpark named after a beer (ironically, with the Brewers in town) for that same play.

The Rockies-Brewers match-up features a pitcher having a very nice season and one who has just recently caught fire. Putting those two together may make it very hard for these two to reach Bovada's total of 9 runs scored.

We'll start with Colorado's Tyler Chatwood, who comes into the game with a 6-3 record and a very respectable 2.48 ERA. He has been even better than that in his last three starts, with a 2-1 record and 1.74 ERA. The most any opponent has scored in those three games is three runs, and all three games went under, with the Rockies winning two of them.

But the Rockies' trend in going under extends beyond the starts for Chatwood. Their last five have all gone under, and the under is 25-8-1 in their last 34. 

But the under is also familiar ground when Wily Peralta has strode to the hill lately. Take a look at his last three starts using the Bovada data tool on our Home page, and you'll see opponents haven't been able to put up more than a single run in his last three. And the under has cashed in on all three of his last three starts, as well.

If the Rockies going under in 25 of their last 34 doesn't get your attention, how about the Brewers staying below the number in 13 of their last 15? To make matter even more convincing, Troy Tulowitzki is only batting .200 since returning from the diaabled list recently, while the Brewers' Rickie Weeks is only 2 for his last 32.

Between these two pitchers and the two teams' recent history of low scoring games, there seems to be a mountain of support here for the under (pardon the pun). That's where we're going, and on this one, we're going after it pretty hard.

My pick: Brewers-Rockies     under 9 runs



Result ... Colorado 8 Milwaukee 3     Total runs = 11     over covers