Ohio State's Got No More Margin for Error

If anyone's NFL draft stock's gone up the past few weeks, it's gotta be Nick Bosa's.

Panic usually sets in when a glory-boy QB or RB goes down with injury, but if the Ohio State defense was poor with him, it's flag-football caliber now.

The Buckeyes' hopes for a CFP slot are still alive if they beat Michigan, but any other lapse, and that's that.

 

This is the sorta situation where Michigan State always seems to pop up on the schedule, and here they are again.

Bovada's inched the line up by a hook to Ohio State -4 with the total set at 49 and the moneyline at Buckeyes -180 and Spartans +160.

Why bet on Ohio State ...

The Buckeyes are 8-1 straight up and 5-1 in conference play. However, against the spread, Ohio State is a dismal 3-6 and 0-3 ATS on the road.

Ohio State can’t lose in East Lansing. Since 1999, the Buckeyes are 6-0 SU at Spartan Stadium. They pulled out a one-point 17-16 win there in 2016. Plus last season the Buckeyes steamrolled the Spartans 42-3 in Columbus.

Moreover, Buckeye QB Dwayne Haskins is in line for a huge day. Dude's tossed for 400+ passing yards in three of his last four starts and now faces a Spartan defense that is ranked 11th in the Big Ten against the pass.

 

Why you should bet on Michigan State ...

The Spartans are 6-3 straight up and 4-2 in conference play. Against the spread, Michigan State is 4-5. At home, that ATS record is 1-4.

Moreover, the Buckeyes have allowed a combined 80 points to Purdue and Nebraska in the last two weeks.

State’s defense ranks 25th in the nation in yards per play against at 4.84. Their run defense is formidable, allowing an FBS-low 71.67 rushing yards per game on a minuscule 2.53 yards per carry.

The Spartans may have won just three of the last seven meetings between the two, but these dudes have a habit of winning when it counts, including the 2013 Big Ten championship game.

 

Instant analysis ...

There's been a dark cloud over Ohio State football program all season. Even the public is souring on the Buckeyes. That's the only explanation for a fantastic value on this spread.

Ohio State’s defense hasn’t been able to limit explosive plays this season. Can the Michigan State offense exploit that? I’m not so sure.

ATS pick: Ohio State -4

Result: Ohio State 26 Michigan State 6 ... Buckeyes cover

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Sportbet Columnist: Noah Williams

Noah lives and works with a simple philosophy of “Eat, Drink, Football.” This is embodied through a dedication to satellite TV, Indian delivery, Folgers in his cup, and Budweiser. He lives in a secret lair with his beautiful concubine.