The Shot Dude: Numbers Can be Deceiving

Published on 6-Nov-2015 by MunkeBiz8

NHL    NHL Daily Stake

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The Shot Dude: Numbers Can be Deceiving

Ever say to yourself, "Those numbers just don't add up!"

I compare player performance numbers every day to write this feature and create my own DFS lineups.

Today is one of those days.

Your favorite Shot Dude has found a few strange number comparisons from teammates that might just blow your mind.

Let's take a look into the 6 game schedule, shown here via the Bovada Data Tool on our home page:

NHL schedule 6 Nov 2015

Now, the reason your favorite Shot Dude created this feature was to emphasize the importance of shot-taking in hockey.

Shots are the starting point of true action on the ice:

  • A shot, obviously, can produce a goal on its own.
  • A shot can rebound off the goalie and create another goal-scoring opportunity.
  • A shot can end up as a save at the hand of an alert goalie.
  • A shot can even result in an injury to a player struck by the puck.

So, it's time to expose the quirky numbers and the players who might help us win tonight, complete with the salaries found on FanDuel.

From the Dallas Stars: Jaime Benn ($9700) and Tyler Seguin ($8800) have played in the same13 games. These two linemates have currently produced the most combined goals (18), assists (22), and total points (40) by teammates.

What's really quirky is the shot distribution. While Seguin has a lower salary on FanDuel, he's had an awesome offensive output of 8 goals, 12 assists on 60 shots. Benn has produced the same amount of points, 20 (10 goals and 10 assists), but on just 32 shots. Getting the same production on only half the shots is extremely efficient.

From the Pittsburgh Penguins: Evgeni Malkin ($8500) and David Perron ($4500). As with the Dallas duo, these two also play on the same line and have taken almost the same amount of shots.

Malkin's 30 shots and over 19 minutes of ice time per game have yielded 4 goals and 6 assists. Perron has only registered 1 goal and 2 assists in his 15 minutes of ice time, but has taken 29 shots. Although not as successful yet, you have to like the $4000 difference in fantasy salary while getting the same number of shots from Perron.

From the Anaheim Ducks: Sami Vatanen ($5300), Cam Fowler ($4600), and Hampus Lindholm ($4300) have played in the same 12 games. Not one ... not two ... but three of the top four shot leaders Anaheim are this trio of defensmen. I defy you to find another NHL team with this strange circumstance.

A key piece of your DFS lineup tonight should be Lindholm. He's the cheapest of these three, has taken the most shots of any Duck with 29, and plays on the top power play unit. Fowler plays on the second power play unit and has taken 27 shots, while Vatanen has taken 26 shots and gets time on the top power play unit with Lindholm.

Also from the Ducks: Frederik Andersen ($8700). What makes his season so interesting is he's only notched a 2-5 record, but is third in the NHL -- with a .934 save percentage -- of goalies who have appeared in at least 10 games.

If Andersen had more goal support from his teammates, more of his Ls might just be Ws. I think he's a great play tonight on home ice facing a fatigued Columbus team that played in Los Angeles last night.

Often the key to finding value for your lineup lies within a quirky set of numbers!

I wish you sucess in all your fantasy contests tonight, and remember you can't win in life without taking your best shot!

FanDuel scorecard

You can follow me on twitter@fsofia8