The Pack Should Be Backed

I'm not normally one who messes with double-digit favorites in the NFL. 

The average game is just too close, and the margin of talent between the best teams and the worst isn't as big as many people think. 

But Bovada's 11-point line favoring the Packers over hapless Detroit is too small for me to resist.

Puttling it bluntly -- because that's what we do here -- Detroit is a mess. The Bovada data tool on our Home page tells some of the tale.

Let's start at the top of the Smart Chart where, not only are the Lions scoring well under 20 points a game -- 18.6 to be exact; second-worst in the NFL -- but they are giving up 30.6, which is worst in the league.

Below the smart chart comes Betting Trends, and they provide more reason to think the Pack will handle the double digit line:

Detroit has only covered once in their last 8 games overall. They are 2-6 covering versus Green Bay in their last 8 games, and just 1-5 covering their last 6 at Lambeau Field.

But the next reason I have a strong feel for Green Bay is one of those intangibles, those things that you can't find on stat sheets or in betting trends.  It's the simple combination of the Packers returning home coming off of a two-game losing streak that occured on the road and the fact they're playing arguably the worst team in the NFL.

Cheeseheads should not panic, and this is no time for Green Bay haters to think they are on the decline. This team could easily represent the NFC in the Super Bowl at season's end. 

They're simply climbing out of a brutal part of the schedule that sent them from Denver to Carolina, a two-game stretch where many teams in the league might go 0-2.  

So don't let that skid or the 11-point line hold you back. Stock up on Green Bay and win yourself some Sunday cheese.

My pick:  Green Bay -11 v Detroit

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Result: Lions 18 Packers 16 ... Detroit covers.