The $65,000 Parlay: Pwn or Punk?

Published on 6-Nov-2013 by J Square Humboldt

Football - NFL    NFL Daily Stake

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The $65,000 Parlay: Pwn or Punk?

As if Bovada needs the advertising.

An online parlay ticket is making the rounds in cyberspace this week. If the buzz is any indication, the television ratings for the San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens games are going to get quite a boost.

Here's the alleged player's announcement:

49ers-Bengals parlay

Opening the image he cites produces this result:

49ers-Bengals parlay ticket

If this is real, it's clearly a Bovada ticket. But that raises a question: How does someone lay that sort of dosh with them?

Bovada obviously has limits, which are spelled out on its website for all to see. Parlay parameters are $1000 on the high end.

The alleged player has made this a compelling story. He claims to be risking his life's savings to basically collect just under a quarter-million of Uncle Sam's coin. But that raises another question: The numbers don't add up.

  • A $65,430.00 bet with -115 odds should pay out $56,895.65.
  • That sum of $122,325.65 would then be rolled over to the 49ers bet with -120 odds, which pays out $224,263.70.
  • The bet on the ticket shows a total of $224,260.00 ($65,430.00 + $158,830.00).
  • That means the ticket calculation is $3.70 light.

Bovada obviously has extremely accurate software. Even an error this small would be hard to fathom.

Looks like a possible photoshop.

Besides the fact that playing parlays is akin to playing with fire -- and they're how bookies cover their kids' college fund -- the Bovada data tool on the Home page offers cautionary trends regarding the Bengals as a road favorite:

Bengals - Ravens data tool stats

That 1-4-1 recent record against-the-spread in Cincinnati's last six games on the road looks daunting, as does its recent 1-4 history against a Ravens team that is none too pleased about last week's loss to Cleveland. On top of that, the Bengals just lost their best defensive player for the rest of the season. Then there's Cincinnati's 2-4 run in its last six road games.

Much can be said for going against the odds in order to win big, but this game is a case of the home dog being the anti-chalk play.

Feel free to peruse the Niners-Panthers matchup on the Bovada data tool, as well. One telling stat there is that San Francisco is 1-11 against the spread when playing Carolina. Who knows? Maybe that's a sign that the pendulum is about to swing the other way.

But that's for real players to decide for themselves. And it's doubtful any of them would put their life's savings on a hunch, much less make a parlay out of it.

In fact, it's about as unlikely as that $65,000 ticket's authenticity.