Scoring at a Mile-High Pace

Published on 23-Sep-2013 by Steve Soprano
Football - NFL / NFL Daily Stake

Scoring at a Mile-High Pace

AFC West rivals Oakland and Denver face off tonight with Bovada setting the total at 49½ as of Sunday night.

And they may want to keep raising it, as far as I'm concerned.

Two weeks into the season, the Broncos are running like a well-oiled machine, and it seems there's little that will slow them down.

Just ask the Ravens and Giants about that, as Denver has averaged an NFL-high 45 points in their two games this season. You will see that if you use the Bovada data tool on the Home page. You will also see something I think is very misleading, and that's the points allowed by the Raider defense so far.

Oakland enters tonight's game ranked sixth in the NFL, allowing 15 points per game.  But that number is deceptive for one simple reason: they played Jacksonville in Week 2. Enough said.

The Broncos are putting points up at record speed and then watching opponents pick up the pace and try to put up some quick scores to make up ground in the second half. That's why you will also see Denver is allowing 25 points a game, putting them 20th in the league. All of that completes a scenario for Denver to jump out quick and the Raiders to post some late scores that surely will send the game over.

The Raiders' late sense of urgency to chase Denver could lead to a back-door cover, so I'll avoid picking a side in the 15½ Denver is laying. Instead, I will just count on Denver again jumping out to a big early lead and the Raiders hurriedly trying to play catch-up throughout the second half, which will make it a happy night for over players.

My pick:  Oakland at Denver   over 49½

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UPDATE:

Result ... Denver 37 Oakland 21     Total points = 58     over covers

Steve Soprano is the founder and handicapper at www.premierticketsports.com.

 

 

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