Making Money in the NFL Pre-Season
While many believe betting on NFL pre-season football is only for degenrates, I've found a system over the years that has worked very effectively.
It requires researching information ahead of the game and also keeping tabs on how the first two quarters shape up. And more importantly, it puts focus on who plays in the first half -- particularly at quarterback.
As an example, let's review last year's pre-season game when Dallas was at San Diego.
The Cowboys built a 10-0 lead at the half, using both of their top two QB's, Tony Romo and Kyle Orton. That left the second half to the very young and inexperienced Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter. The Chargers, on the other hand, went with Philip Rivers the entire first half, meaning veteran back-up Charlie Whitehurst was going to see plenty of second half action. And with his team being held scoreless, one could also expect he might put the ball in the air.
Simply compare the QB's for the second half: the veteran Whitehurst, who was second on the Chargers depth chart, against the very young and inexperienced McGee and Carpenter for Dallas. So when the second half line came out at San Diego -2.5, I dumped on the Chargers.
The outcome? They outscored Dallas 28-10 in the second half. Cha-ching!
Here's another: Raiders at Cardinals.
Remember when Arizona had the pre-season battle last year between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton? Well, in that game, they both played a quarter and the Cardinals jumped out to a 24-11 lead at recess. But that left Ryan Lindley to handle all the passing for Arizona in the second half.
Knowing Carson Palmer played the entire first half for Oakland, I knew -- at worst -- it would be Matt Leinart starting the second half, with the exciting young Terrelle Pryor possibly getting a few plays as well.
The second half line was Oakland -0.5.
Again, the proposition was simple, would I take a Matt Leinart/Terrelle Pryor-led team for a half over Ryan Lindley? My answer was and still is yes ... all day long. And in the second half, Oakland outscored the Cardinals 16-7. Easy money again.
Some research before the game can help you find out how much a starting quarterback should play in a game. That way, when halftime comes, you can compare QB's for the final two quarters and make your play accordingly if the line doesn't reflect it.
So, as the pre-season approaches, pay close attention to team depth charts at the quarterback position and make mental notes -- or written, we don't care -- on who has the veteran quarterbacks. That way, when the second half line comes and they are waiting in the wings against rookies or otherwise unproven QB's, you can lower the boom, just like in the examples above.