The Daily Player 12: Selection Committee Snaps into Line

Published on 02-Dec-2014 by Alan Adamsson
Football - NCAA / NCAA Football Daily Update

It was only a matter if time.

So now it's confirmed.

All it really took to determine the Featured Four to this particular point is a few quality adult beverages, a plate of killer nachos, and assigning numerical values to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee's alleged main criteria.

The top of their list now matches The Daily Player 12 from last week. Only the order is different.

There may be hope for those dudes -- and dudette -- yet.

Here's the Committee's Top 12 for this week:

1. Alabama   3. TCU xxxx
2. Oregon   4. Florida State
   
5. Ohio State   9. Kansas State
6. Baylor 10. Mississippi State
7. Arizona 11. Georgia Tech
8. Michigan State 12. Mississippi

Yes, the playoffs need to expand to eight teams as soon as possible, but in essence, this coming weekend is already a de facto nine-team field -- K-State needs a win and a miracle -- fighting for the right to make the national semi-finals. It'll be a surprise if this year's cast of so-called underdogs in the four conference title games don't manage a bracket-busting breakthrough somewhere in the proceedings. And they're all building cases in case they're the one.

The Daily Player 12 is based on taking the Selection Committee at its word. More than its word, in fact. No opinions, just data:

  • Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
  • Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
  • Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
  • Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are. Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
  • Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

As opposed to some organizations out there, the key is what one does with the data. Like assigning simple, graded values and letting it speak for itself.

  • Standings matter. The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position. A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
  • Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
  • Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
  • If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
  • Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
  • Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

This results in The Daily Player 12:

      Stdg NC-P5   H-H   Bov   Geek   Total
  1. Florida St ...     10      9      6     6.9      7.5     39.4
  2. Alabama ...     10      3    11     7.5      6.9     38.4
  3. Oregon ...     10      3      8     7.2      7.2     35.4
  4. TCU ...     10      3      8     6.3      6.3     33.6
  5. Ohio St ...     10      1      3     6.6      6.6     27.2
  6. Baylor ...     10           5     6.3      5.1     26.4
  7. UCLA ...       9      6      1     4.2      5.7     25.9
  8. Mississippi St ...       9          4     5.7      5.4     24.1
  9. Kansas St ...     10      1      2     4.8      4.8     22.6
10. Georgia ...       9      1      6     3.9      2.4     22.3
11. Auburn ...       7      3      6     3.9      2.1     22.0
12. Michigan St ...       9      1      3     5.4      3.0     21.4

Random thoughts:

  • The Geeks have been adamant all along that Florida State deserves the top seed, but the Noles may have the biggest challenge when they face Georgia Tech's option offense. Preparing for it in only one week is daunting.
  • Arizona's going to get a lotta play, but beating the same team twice in one season would be an odds-avenger.
  • Guest geek Nate Silver hints that the game control head-scratcher was a clumsy attempt by the Committee to justify its disdain for Florida State and explain why computer projections consistently rank them higher. Finally! A conspiracy theory!

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