The Daily Player 12: Revenge of the Noles

Published on 04-Nov-2014 by Alan Adamsson
Football - NCAA / NCAA Football Daily Update

Upon further review ...

Florida State may not be the people's choice for champion, but the number crunchers are with them.

And that's the force that propelled the Seminoles to No 1 in this week's The Daily Player 12.

This is a list that takes the CFP Selection Committee at its word. If its main criteria for anointing four teams to vie for a national championship are conference championships, strength of schedule, and head-to-head results, then here's where their collective feet will be held to the fire.

That's right. Just the facts. This is a no-poser zone.

Here's the Committee's Top 12 for this week:

1. Mississippi State   3. Auburn xxxx
2. Florida State   4. Oregon
   
5. Alabama   9. Arizona State
6. Texas Christian 10. Notre Dame
7. Kansas State 11. Mississippi
8. Michigan State 12. Baylor

So now it's down to two SEC teams in the privileged positions. That's in line with the natural order of things, which had best include the laws of natural selection by Sun 7 Dec, when the final list is issued.

The first four look familiar to The Daily Player 12, as well they should. To review, this order of merit is based on just that:

  • Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
  • Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
  • Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
  • Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are. Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
  • Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

It's not that complicated, nor should it be:

  • The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position. A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
  • Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
  • Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
  • If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
  • Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
  • Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

So without further ado, here's The Daily Player 12 for this week. A little perusing music, maestro ...

    Stdg NC-P5 HH Bov Geek Total
  1. Florida State ...   10      6   6  6.9   6.9  35.8
  2. Auburn ...     9      3   8  6.0   7.2  33.2
  3. Oregon ...   10      3   5  7.5   6.6  32.1
  4. Miss St ...   10     6  6.6   7.5  30.1
               
  5. Notre Dame ...     9      9  -1  5.1   5.4  27.5
  6. TCU ...     9      3   5  6.0   4.5  27.5
  7. Alabama ...     9      3   2  7.2   6.0  27.2
  8. Kansas St ...   10      1   3  5.1   5.1  24.2
  9. Georgia ...     9      1   3  3.9   5.7  22.6
10. Arizona St ...   10        2  4.5   5.7  22.2
11. Michigan St ...   10      1   3  6.3    20.3
12. UCLA ...     8      6   1     4.8  19.8

This list is guaranteed to change weekly because -- like the Geeks -- it only accounts for games played. And that's allegedly what the Selection Committee is supposed to do.

A few random observations:

  • The Selection Committee still has cred, as its bracket teams match those of the The Daily Player 12.
  • Bovada currently likes Oregon to win it all, while the Geeks currently prefer Mississippi State.
  • Geek data, especially, is based on a full body of work, as the committee is. So rejoice, SEC fans, as it currently indicates Gator victim Georgia is still stronger than Michigan State.
  • Ole Miss vanished. Getting a zero for weak non-cons will do that.

Will Florida State's biggest remaining challenge be Jameis Winston's disciplinary hearing? And no, that outcome won't factor into the Noles' head-to-head total.

Look for The Daily Player 12 on a digital device near you every Tuesday for the rest of the season. And continue to hope for an eight-team playoff within the next four years.

Table 'dailypla_database.metrics_robots' doesn't exist