The Daily Player 12: Lotsa Shakin' Going On

Published on 10-Nov-2015 by Alan Adamsson

Football - NCAA    NCAA Football Daily Update

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The Daily Player 12: Lotsa Shakin' Going On

Another promise kept.

In last week's first installment of this season's Daily Player 12, we guaranteed significant movement in the rankings, for the simple fact that past performance is all that counts.

And there was some serious past performance to consider after last weekend's fun and games.

How are salient selectors to make sense of it all?

Actually, there are two ways to approach the task of anointing a Featured Four two populate the College Football Playoff bracket:

  • Pompously gather in Dallas once a week with all sortsa resources and pontificate from on high, or
  • Find a bar with good beer and nachos, check out standings and schedules, and for good measure, dial up a bookie and consult a geek.

Because, really, how hard is it to sort our their alleged mandate:

  • Conference titles, as in duh!
  • Strength-of-schedule, as in doh!
  • Head-to-head results, which ... well ... hit it, gang:

So, here's what wisdom the selectors bestowed upon the great unwashed this week:

1. Clemson   3. Ohio State
2. Alabama   4. Notre Dame
5. Iowa   9. LSU
6. Baylor 10. Utah
7. Stanford 11. Florida
8. Oklahoma State 12. Oklahoma

It's subtle, but there's still a waft of big brand extrapolation in the air.

For example, consider committee chairman Jeff Long, the Arkansas AD, getting all smarmy inside with anticipation about what Ohio State's gonna do, as opposed to what the Buckeyes have done:

... [W]e think Ohio State is strong, and yet they still do have important games in front of them that will demonstrate to the committee just how strong they are.

Time to justify the bar bill.

The Daily Player 12 criteria is empirical. No opinions, just data:

  • Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
  • Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
  • If an Other Five team made it to Week 9 undefeated in conference and with two or fewer losses overall, it will be considered to have earned Power Five status.
  • Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
  • Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are.
  • Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
  • Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

This system's not that complicated, nor should it be:

  • The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.
  • A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
  • Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
  • Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
  • If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
  • Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
  • Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

We shall. Here's this week's dose of reality:

Daily Player 12 rankings

A few observations:

  • Anderson-Hester accurately state that Iowa's beaten two Top 25's on the road, which is why the Hawkeyes topped their list.
  • The Other Five are getting doinked in the Head-to-Head category now; their only shot is in the non-con games, and big brands will rarely schedule them.
  • Looks like Clemson had better be ready for North Carolina, if the Tar Heels make the ACC title game.

UNC tweet

  • JT Barrett had best be on his game, too. After toying with Illinois, Ohio State could well need to navigate a three-game gauntlet to hold their position.
  • Frankly, for a Big XII team to make the Featured Four, it has no choice but to win out. Soft non-cons are poised to bite the title contenders in the butt again.