The Daily Player 12: An Amazing Grasp of the Obvious

Published on 04-Dec-2015 by Alan Adamsson
Football - NCAA / NCAA Football Daily Update

This wouldn't happen if they just went by the numbers.

Seems like the College Football Playoff Selection Committee is rolling sevens these days.

Most of the Featured Four contenders are sorting themselves out this season.

It's still a bummer that a Power Five titlist will miss the fun, and the way the American race shook out this season, it would've been nifty to see how its victor might've fared.

But that'll have to wait until those in the ivory tower decide to accept a few more kajillion dollars in media dosh and expand to an eight-team field.

Odds strongly favor Clemson and Alabama, and if either one gets upended in their conference championship games, that's where the chaos will reign.

So for now, this is how the CFP selectors see what's bubbling underneath:

1. Clemson   3. Oklahoma
2. Alabama   4. Iowa
   
5. Michigan State   9. Florida State
6. Ohio State 10. North Carolina
7. Stanford 11. TCU
8. Notre Dame 12. Baylor

The logical choices to jump into the brackets in the event of an upset would be the prevailing teams or the omitted Power Five champion, but if CFP chalk holds:

  • It looks like that wouldn't happen for Florida. The Gators are nowhere to be seen, and understandably so;
  • Stanford would still need to beat USC for the Pac-12 to squeeze into the bracket;
  • North Carolina would be considered in spite of the weak ACC environment that's been boosting Clemson; and
  • Ohio State would be the team that lights the chaos match.

Let's see how the harsh light of cold reality interprets the selectors' mission by using their own mandate:

The Daily Player 12 criteria is empirical. No opinions, just data:

  • Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
  • Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
  • If an Other Five team made it to Week 9 undefeated in conference and with two or fewer losses overall, it will be considered to have earned Power Five status.
  • Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
  • Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are.
  • Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
  • Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

This system's not that complicated, nor should it be:

  • The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.
  • A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
  • Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
  • Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
  • If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
  • Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
  • Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

So this week's real rankings actually provide better insight as to how the selectors should cope with upsets:

Daily Player 12

A few observations:

  • Oklahoma's already got its five points for winning a conference title baked in, as it should be.
  • The Geeks have it right with the ACC's weak frame of reference, which bodes ill for Clemson and gives hope to the Tar Heels.
  • If Stanford wins, it should be in the bracket as a replacement for an upset.
  • And Houston? That trap game at UConn truly blew a shot at real chaos. Dammit.

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