Orange Juice

Published on 25-Sep-2014 by Steve Soprano

Football - NCAA    NCAA Football Daily Stake

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Orange Juice

Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater will no doubt be a sea of orange as the Oklahoma State Cowboys host Texas Tech tonight.  

Here's predicting it'll be a loud and very happy crowd of orange almost all throughout.

Oddsmakers at Bovada feel the same way, posting the Cowboys as 14-point favorites for these teams' Big XII opener.

I say, lay those points all day long. Texas Tech won't keep it within two touchdowns.  

We can look at recent history -- ie- this season -- or go back five years, and either way, you'll find overwhelming evidence to support a Cowboy cover here.

Let's start more recently. The Bovada data tool on the Home page will take you to some abysmal defensive stats for Texas Tech this season, mostly when it comes to stopping the run. Actually, let me correct that, because the only thing that has really stopped the run for Texas Tech is the goal line opponents are carrying the ball across.  

The Red Raiders are allowing a horrendous 297 yards per game on the ground.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State 1

And before you think that it's happened against some of those high powered Big XII juggernauts, Tech's three opponents so far have been Central Arkansas, UTEP, and Arkansas.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State 2

One of the most recognizable symbols around the Tech campus is The Matador. It's fitting, because this season, Tech is doing it's best impersonation of matadors on defense.  

Before we go any further back to further drive home the point, notice Oklahoma State does bring a formidable ground attack to the table, rushing for just over 170 yards per game, and against Florida State and upstart UTSA, no less. Even though Oklahoma State's regular QB and better runner JW Walsh won't start this game, the Cowboys will utilize their running backs more to repeatedly exploit the porous Tech run defense throughout the contest.

On the other side of the ball, Tech can throw it around. The fear of a back-door cover could creep into the picture here. But the Red Raider offense will become very predictable passing the ball and simply won't keep this one within the two-touchdown spread.  

Still not sold? Then let's go back to the Bovada data tool and get a sample size dating back nine years. That's where you'll see the Cowboys have covered in seven of the last nine in this series, including the last five straight!

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State 3

Tech is also 1-8 in their last 9 games against the spread overall, with the only cover being their impressive bowl win over Arizona State last season.

But this team just can't get over the hump in the mighty Big XII. Conference opponents have figured that out, but oddsmakers haven't. Take the Cowboys and have no fear in laying two touchdowns.

My pick:  Oklahoma State     -14


ResultOklahoma State 45 Texas Tech 35     Red Raiders cover

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