Low Orbit in Cincinnati

Today's football menu features a doubleheader, with the Toledo Rockets visiting Cincinnati to open the proceedings.

Bovada is posting a 10-point spread favoring the home Bearcats, with a total of 58.  

It's the 58 is the number I'm eyeballing, thinking these two will have a hard time getting there.  

Toledo will likely struggle offensively because they're starting their back-up quarterback tonight. Starter Phillip Ely tore his ACL in Rockets' loss last week to Missouri, meaning Logan Woodside has to step in and run the show. He's had experience and was in the mix to be Toledo's starter, but this could still be a daunting task against a well-rested Cincinnati defense. How well rested? Well, it has yet to take the field this season.

So do know their laundry is clean. Really clean.

Yes, the Bearcats haven't played a game yet, and on the other side of the ball, that also leads one to wonder how well their offense will flow. This is pertinent, especially since their starting quarterback is Gunner Kiel.  

Just how much of a gunner is Gunner? Well, we have no idea. He's a transfer who hasn't played a down of organized football in three years when he was in high school!

Mind you, he did log some time in the Bearcats's spring game:

Let's also consider his coach, Tommy Tuberville, a dude who's always preferred a run-first offense, even in this day of five wide-outs and spread offenses. That philosophy is going to be in full view today, as he tries to break in his new QB conservatively, with a shipload of running plays and short passes, both of which will chew up mucho ticks on the game clock.

That's right, don't forget about Munchie.

You'll see, using the Bovada data tool on the Home page, that the Bearcats saw three of their last five games go under the total.

Also, six starters return from a defensive unit that allowed 21 points or less in eight of their 13 games last season. I think that and the inexperience of both quarterbacks tonight leads to a game that stays under the number.

My pick:  Toledo v Cincinnati     under 58

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Result:  Cincinnati 58 Toledo 34     total = 92     over covers

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