Knights Out to Prove Their Record's No Bull

Central Florida's the CFP's No 15 team but positioned at No 6 on the merit-based Daily Player 12.

In what should be their toughest test to date, the 10-0 Golden Knights host 9-1 South Florida on Black Friday.

Their records against the spead indicate the bookies have an accurate bead on both of them:

• UCF is 6-3 ATS, and
• USF is 4-6.

We'll start by looking at both against-the-spread options:

Bet on South Florida +10 because …

USF's defense has stepped it up in recent games.

At the beginning of the season, the Bulls' D was terrible. They allowed teams like San José State and Illinois to rack up 20 points against them. Even Stony Brook scored 17.

Still, those were USF's first three games.

They've kept every opponent since then under 30 with the exception of East Carolina -- whom they beat, 61-31 -- and that's because coach Charlie Strong -- yes, that Charlie Strong -- gave generous playing time to the reserves.

If South Florida’s defense can play Central Florida tough, the Bulls might cover the spread.

Bet on Central Florida -10 because …

UCF’s offense is unstoppable.

The Golden Knights average 523.2 yards per game. That ranks fifth in college football. In fact, Central Florida boasts the highest-scoring team in Division I, averaging 48 points per game.

Among other things, Scott Frost's team went to Annapolis and took out a Navy team, 31-21, that gave Notre Dame all sortsa headaches in South Bend.

So ...

Both football programs are relatively new to the FBS, and because of their proximity -- Tampa and Orlando -- they're a logical pairing as natural rivals.

They just don't have that much history together yet. This game could be the start of one.

They're calling it the War on I-4. As if they don't have one on that stretch of road year 'round.

Here's our ATS pick ...

The Golden Knights also sport a decent defense, allowing a stingy 373.6 total yards per game. They've also surrendered only 20.5 points per game. That’s not a lot of points to yield in college football.

The problem with beating UCF is, even if an opponent has its offense going, it’s difficult to stop the Knights’ offense. UCF is balanced with their rushing and passing attacks. They throw for 320.4 yards per game and run for 202.8.

The one saving grace for the Bulls is that their defense is slightly better than Central Florida’s.

USF only allows 19.9 points per. Opponents average 323.5 yards per game.

Is that enough of a difference for me to back the Bulls? It sure is.

I think South Florida upsets Central Florida straight up, by a field goal.

ATS pick: USF +10

Result: UCF 49 USF 42 ... Bulls cover

***

Sportbet Columnist: Noah Williams

Noah lives and works with a simple philosophy of “Eat, Drink, Football.” This is embodied through a dedication to satellite TV, Indian delivery, Folgers in his cup, and Budweiser. He lives in a secret lair with his beautiful concubine.