Iron Bowl: Will Auburn Short-Circuit the CFP Bracket?

Top-ranked Alabama will look to avoid the huge upset when they hit the road to take on No 6 Auburn -- they're No 11 in The Daily Player 12 -- in their annual Iron Bowl tilt.

This season it doubles as the biggest game on the Week 13 docket.

The winner goes to the SEC championship game. If Bama's the loser, they're at the mercy of other CFP contenders' results and could miss the playoff bracket altogether. That's no hype.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers say that's not gonna happen: They're currently listing the Tide as a -4.5 road dog:

We'll start by looking at both against-the-spread options:

Bet Alabama to win the Iron Bowl because …

The Crimson Tide crushed Mercer, 56-0, this past weekend to remain unbeaten and well on track for another berth in the College Football Playoff.

Consider this clip being worth 1000 words:

QB Jalen Hurts tossed three TD passes and backup Tua Tagovailoa tossed three more in relief.

Wide receiver Calvin Ridley had three catches for 103 yards and a touchdown as the Tide covered the chalk as insane 49.5-point home faves.

Bet Auburn to win the Iron Bowl because …

Gus Malzahn's Tigers won their fourth straight game by pounding UL-Monroe 42-14.

QB Jarrett Stidham threw two paydirt passes while running back Kerryon Johnson rushed for a team-high 137 yards and another score, although Auburn failed to cover the spread as 38-point home favorites.

This game's huge because the Tigers recorded one of the biggest upsets of the season by beating then-No 1 Georgia, 40-17, at home two weeks ago. And then there's the rather significant fact that it is the Iron Bowl.

So ...

Your wager on this matchup, then, depends on whether you believe the Tigers are as good as that victory says they are or whether you’re going with Old Faithful Alabama to beat back another challenger to their SEC supremacy.

Here's our Iron Bowl ATS Pick

I’m going to suggest you roll with the 58% of college football bettors who like Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide to get the job done in this one, despite being on the road.

Alabama is the better statistical team on both sides of the ball and holds damn near a 10-point scoring margin when you take into account both teams’ offensive and defensive scoring totals.

More importantly, I believe Alabama is going to find a way to both:

• Shut down Kerryon Johnson, and
• Force Jarrett Stidham into a couple of costly turnovers that will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Alabama has won three straight in this series and will have the best player on the field in Jalen Hurts. Besides that, they’ve got the big edge as far as coaching is concerned.

The Tide is a blistering 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, even though their 1-4 ATS mark in their last 5 conference games doesn’t look very encouraging.

Auburn struggled to put points on the board in their two losses against Clemson and LSU -- after blowing a 20-point lead -- this season, and neither of those teams has a defense that's as good as Alabama’s.

Love ‘em or loathe ‘em, the top-ranked Tide get it done in this huge and, potentially, College Football Playoff defining matchup!

ATS Pick: Alabama -4.5

Result: Auburn 26 Alabama 14 ... Tigers cover

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Sportbet Columnist: Josh Bailey

Aspiring to become the Mark Twain of sports writing, Josh has been labelled as the up-&-coming sports writer of the year by absolutely nobody and the new heavy hitter in sports handicapping by his mother.