In a Game Where Something Has to Give, Give 6

Published on 14-Nov-2015 by Steve Soprano
Football - NCAA / NCAA Football Daily Stake

The trick is getting the pick.

Today, two teams stuck in the Big XII food chain's middle of the pack food chain tee it up in Lubbock.

Crafty Bill Snyder's Kansas State Wildcats need to win three of their last four to make it to a bowl, while GQ Kliff Kingsbury's  Texas Tech Red Raiders are only one away from a holiday invitation and the 15 extra practices that go with it.

However, when viewed in the cold light of harsh reality, this is a tilt featuring squads that have combined for eight straight losses, five of them by K-State.

K-State v Texas Tech

My money's on the Red Raiders to not only get the W, but comfortably cover the 6-point spread Bovada has placed on it.

Now, in terms of data, there's not a lot of surprising information to go on. Yes, the Bovada data tool on the Home page does show all the gaudy numbers Tech has put up this season, including over 580 yards per game of total offense, but the argument could be made that their defense is far more vulnerable than Kansas State's.

Texas Tech defensive stats

This play is more about a feeling. The same feeling I had when Tech hosted Iowa State a few weeks ago, was just over a double digit favorite, and I loved them.

Kingsbury's crew was coming off losses to Baylor and TCU, and preparing to play a more conservative team offensively that lacked Tech's quality athlete. I just didn't think the Cyclones could keep up with them.

That was precisely the case as Tech won, 66-31.

Now, with all due respect to Bill Snyder -- known for getting more production out of less talent than anyone -- I think the Wildcats' talent this season has really fallen off. Not all of this is his fault, as the team has been hit hard by the injury bug.

Regardless, I also think his team is facing a similar outcome as Iowa State a few weeks ago. Texas Tech may not get to 60, but the K-State offense seriously lacks the firepower to keep up with one of the nation's best offensive attacks.

Look for the Wildcats to employ the same strategy that worked for a while against Baylor. They'll use a ball control offense to try and keep the ball out of Tech's hands. And that will work for a while. But their four or five scores won't be enough to cover the six or seven put up by Tech.

The Red Raiders will be the club seeing a losing streak snapped, and their backers like me will be the ones collecting the cash when it's over.

My pick: Texas Tech -6 v Kansas State

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Result: Red Raiders 59 Wildcats 44 ... Texas Tech covers

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