A Mountain West Scoring Fest

Published on 20-Sep-2013 by Steve Soprano
Football - NCAA / NCAA Football Daily Stake

Living on in the Mountain West.

Relative newcomers to the Mountain West square off in the San Joaquin Valley tonight.

Boise State's Broncos face the Fresno State Bulldogs with Bovada bettors laying four to play the home team and a total of 69 on the contest.

I'm not normally one to automatically jump on the over when two high-powered offenses hook up like this, but tonight I'm finding it hard not to.

Oddsmakers also know when there are two offensive juggernauts facing off -- and also when incompetent defenses take the field, which also may apply here -- and can over-inflate a total by a hair, knowing the betting public more often plays the over than the under, but in this case, I have a very hard time seeing this one staying under.

There's ample information to back this up by using the Bovada data tool on the Home page. First, just look at the average total score in the two teams' games. It's 61 for Boise State and a massive 84½ combined average for Fresno. The Bulldogs have allowed 76 points through their two games, and you know Boise State will get their share, as well.

Another factor that I think deserves some consideration is Fresno State's suspect special teams when it comes to coverage. The first time they teed up a kick-off this season, it was taken the distance by Rutgers, and there have been other coverage breakdowns aside from that.

The over has hit in fevw of the last seven for the visiting Broncos and in eight of their last eleven on the road. I see that trend continuing tonight.

My pick:  Boise State at Fresno State   over  69

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UPDATE:

Result ... Fresno State 41 Boise State 40     Total points = 81     over covers

Steve Soprano is the founder and handicapper at www.premierticketsports.com.

 

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