The Daily Player 12: Return of the BCS Zombies

Published on 25-Nov-2014 by Alan Adamsson
Football - NCAA / NCAA Football Daily Update

Will not die.

So much for the CFP Selection Committee including data progressively as the season rolls along.

That's allegedly what was supposed to happen. The rankings deck was alleged to be shuffled after each week and the teams' body of work would be further defined as their latest opponents' data was added to the mix.

Given that Alabama didn't budge from the top spot, Western Carolina must really have some hellacious stats in there somewhere.

Could it be that everyone in the room is just sick and tired of their weekly trips to Dallas? Especially on Thanksgiving week? It's possible they're just mailing it in right now. Kinda like the pollsters did in the BCS days.

Here's the Committee's Top 12 for this week:

1. Alabama   3. Florida State xxxx
2. Oregon   4. Mississippi State
   
5. TCU   9. Georgia
6. Ohio State 10. Michigan State
7. Baylor 11. Arizona
8. UCLA 12. Kansas State

Sayonara, Land Sharks. Konnichiwa, Zona. And that's about it.

The Daily Player 12 is based on taking the Selection Committee at its word. More than its word, in fact. No opinions, just data:

  • Until a conference title is clinched, division leaders will be considered as first-place teams.
  • Power Five scores in non-conference games will be measured on a win-loss basis.
  • Head-to-head results will be measured separately on a win-loss basis.
  • Bookies are the only evaluators who put their dosh where their conclusions are. Bovada championship odds will be factored into the rankings.
  • Geeks have an unbiased place in this process; Anderson-Hester computer rankings are easily understandable and will be included.

As opposed to some organizations out there, the key is what one does with the data. Like assigning simple, graded values and letting it speak for itself.

  • Standings matter. The Big XII has ten teams; no other conference has a division that large, so a first-place team will get 10 points, a second-place team will get 9 points, and so forth. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position. A conference champion will be awarded 5 bonus points.
  • Non-con Power Five wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth 1 point.
  • Notre Dame's schedule will be measured against ACC teams.
  • If BYU ever becomes a factor, we'll figure it out then.
  • Head-to-head conference wins will be worth 3 points; those losses will be worth -1 point.
  • Bovada and Geek rankings will be based on a 25-point scale and factored down by a constant of 0.3; thus, a first-place position will be worth (25 x 0.3) = 7.5 points, second place for either will be worth (24 x 0.3) = 7.2 points, and so on. If a team is tied for a position, it will be considered to hold the higher position.

This results in The Daily Player 12:

      Stdg NC-P5   H-H   Bov   Geek   Total
  1. Florida St ...     10      6       6     6.9      7.5     36.4
  2. Alabama ...     10      3      8     7.5      7.2     35.7
  3. Oregon ...     10      3      8     7.2      6.9     35.1
  4. TCU ...     10      3      8     6.3      5.7     33.0
  5. Miss St ...       9          5     5.7      6.6     27.3
  6. UCLA ...     10      6      1     4.2      6.0     27.2
  7. Ohio St ...     10      1      3     6.6      6.3     26.3
  8. Baylor ...     10          5     6.3      4.8     26.1
  9. Auburn ...       8      3      7     3.9      4.2     26.1
10. Georgia ...       9      1      6     3.9      5.1     25.0
11. Arizona St ...     10      3      1     5.1      4.5     23.6
12. Michigan St ...       9      1      3     5.4      3.0     21.4

Random thoughts:

  • The Geeks earned their cred this week. They did accumulate stats progressively, and that Carolina cupcake dropped Alabama down a notch, behind Florida State. The Noles may have had a close call yet again, but at least they played a team that had a chance of winning.
  • As well, the Geeks still don't rate Baylor's body of work. They've only cracked the computer's Top 10 this week.
  • Any championship game is worth watching, but if UCLA wraps up the Pac-12 South by dropping Stanford this weekend, they'll get another shot at the Ducks. Could be interesting, and possibly just as interesting as Minnesota's return match with Ohio State if it can shock Wisconsin at Camp Randall this weekend.
  • Iron Bowl? Egg Bowl? Nothing's settled in the South.

Conference champions may well change the bracket landscape more than the Selection Committee ever would. As it should be.

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