The Trend is Your Friend

Published on 08-May-2013 by Steve Soprano
Basketball - NBA / NBA Daily Stake

10 is a good number, but not enough...

Ready or not -- or perhaps rested or not -- here it comes:

Game Two of the Western Conference semi-finals as the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs meet up two days removed from their wild two-overtime contest won by the Spurs, 129-127.

Bovada has the Spurs as a 7-point favorite, and the way Golden State has been playing, I'm having a hard time figuring out why it's that many.

San Antonio had to make a miraculous comeback to send Game 1 to overtime Monday night (finishing regulation on an 18-2 run) and overcame a five-point deficit late in the first overtime to extend the game five more minutes before winning in second extra frame. People continue to marvel at Golden State guard Stephen Curry, and for good reason, as he poured in 44 in the losing effort Monday night.

But for some reason, they don't have a lot of faith in Golden State as a team. The Warriors have now covered the number ten straight times after Monday's double-overtime loss. They easily covered the 9.5 they were getting Monday and almost made it a very happy Monday for their money-line players as a +375 underdog, very nearly cashing in straight up.  

That same lack of respect is evident in their season series with San Antonio. By checking the Bovada data tool on the Home page, you will see that Golden State has now covered four of their five match-ups with the Spurs since the start of the regular season. While we haven't exactly been lighting things on fire here lately, I am going with Golden State here and doing so with a lot of confidence based on the Warriors recent success against the line overall and paired up with San Antonio.

It's awfully hard to turn down a touchdown with Curry & Co playing the way they are. The last time I played them against a similar number was Game 5 of their first-round series with Denver, and I felt like (and wrote) only a huge lead is safe with the Warriors firing bullseyes the way they do. That theory may well prove true again tonight.

Don't let a Spurs win surprise you. Do let a Spurs blowout come as a shocker. I'd surely be, and it would hit me in the heart of my wallet. I'm going Golden State hard and recommending to all my betting buddies. And there are 10 straight games to prove it's the right play to make.

My pick: Golden State     +7

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UPDATE:

Result ... Golden State 100 San Antonio 91     Warriors cover

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