The Shot Dude: Recency Bias

Published on 26-Dec-2015 by MunkeBiz8

Basketball - NBA    NBA Daily Stake

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The Shot Dude: Recency Bias

Ever wonder why some players perform best against a certain team?

Your favorite Shot Dude does.

And it's time to put that question to the test today.

The NBA has a gigantic 13-game schedule today. The Wizards and Nets are in an afternoon clash, and you can scan the rest using the Bovada data tool on our Home page:

Bovada NBA schedule

Predicting which NBA players will go off on any particular night is an inexact science so let's switch it up a little.

Our focus today is on hoopsters who've had a high recent fantasy point history against the team they face today. As always, the FanDuel pricing will be included, so visit them and get involved in some of their fantasy games.

Point Guards

Isaiah ThomasBoston ($8300) ... had 38 points in 38 minutes his last game against Detroit, which resulted in an awesome 48.1 fantasy score. Thomas will need to be around a 42 fantasy point output to make value. Detroit's defense has been stingy to point guards, so I'm interested to see if Thomas can repeat the great game from 10 days ago.

Kemba Walker, Charlotte ($7700) ... had 33 points in 35 minutes recently against Memphis. Back on 11December, dude also added five rebounds and six assists to finish with a 45-point fantasy night. Walker will be home this time against the Grizzlies, where most of his success has happened. Memphis ranks exactly in the middle (15th) in defending point guards.

Shooting Guards

CJ McCollumPortland ($7500) ... finished with 35.1 fantasy points in 36 minutes when he played Cleveland on 8 December. There's some question as to whether the Trailblazers will get Damian Lillard back for today's game; combine that with the fact Lillard also played in the last game against the Cavaliers, and McCullom should flourish regardless of Lillard's availability. Cleveland's defense against shooting guards currently ranks 11th.

Kentavious Caldwell-PopeDetroit ($5900) ... had an incredible 40.9 fantasy point outpouring against Boston back on 16 December. I don't expect a repeat, but a 30-point effort would both reach value and be a more reasonable total to expect. The Celtics' defense against shooting guards is currently 19th, and Caldwell-Pope will have his home buckets to target today.

Small Forwards

LeBron JamesCleveland ($10,400) ... is a tough recommendation due to the 52-point fantasy total needed to make value. However, today, he takes on Portland, who just allowed James to rack up 57.5 fantasy points when they met 16 days ago. LeBron hasn't scored less than 23 points in his last 9 games. Dude's matchup-proof, but the Blazers have been a Top Ten defense this year against small forwards.

Kostas Papankolaou, Denver ($3500) ... has my attention with what he did in his most recent game. Due to a host of Denver injuries, Papankolaou got the start this past Wed 23 Dec at Phoenix and produced a shocking 26.5 fantasy points in 33 minutes; you normally don't see 7-8 times value from a minimum salary player. Most will shy away from Denver players today, due to the stout defense San Antonio plays. But that ranking is based on veteran starters who might rest, having played yesterday.

Power Forwards

Kevin LoveCleveland ($7800) ... has exceeded value in 3 of his last 5 games plus a 35.8 fantasy point output in 30 minutes last game against Portland. Unlike their defense against small forwards, the Trail Blazers are generous to power forwards and centers. Cleveland has a team total of 102, so the bulk of the scoring should come from those two positions and LeBron James. 

David WestSan Antonio ($3600) ... has a great chance to see sucess today, since he should start for the resting Tim Duncan. The last two games where West saw a bump in playing time due to resting players, dude provided 22.5 and 28.5 fantasy points, respecively. The Nuggies rank right around 20th in the league in defense against power forwards and centers.


Gorgi DiengMinnesota ($5300) ... has seen a recent, reliable increase in minutes that has enabled him to make fantasy value on a consist basis. Not only has Dieng played at least 29 minutes in his last five games, but has easily made fantasy value in four of those contests. Dieng gets the home court advantage against Indiana who ranks 22nd in defense of centers this season.

Your favorite Shot Dude hopes you perform your best and cash in on some fantasy cash tonight.

FanDuel scorecard

Just as in life, you cannot score unless you give it your best shot!

You can follow me on twitter@fsofia8.