Low-Balling

Published on 24-Apr-2013 by Steve Soprano
Basketball - NBA / NBA Daily Stake

Low-Balling

We're going to be short, sweet, and to the point here and won't throw a lot of numbers at you (because there aren't many that matter here), but if you're looking for a lot of points in Game Two of the Lakers/Spurs series Wed 24 April in San Antonio, you will most likely be disappointed.

Bovada has the game total at 188, and I think the two teams will have a hard time getting there.

Sunday in Game 1, the Lakers sputtered to a 79 total in their 12-point loss to the Spurs, and without Kobe Bryant, it's hard to see them lighting up the scoreboard the rest of the way. In the Lakers' three games without Bryant, they have failed to hit the century mark, and that includes a home game with Houston ( a situation tailor-made for at least 110).  

I won't say that Steve Nash, Meta World-Peace, and Paul Gasol are getting too old for the NBA, but is running and gunning going to get them past the Spurs? I say it's not. Look for the Lakers to slow things down to try and keep the Spurs in the 80's and steal one on the road with defense. 

That also plays right into what used to be the Spurs style. They've been known through the entire Gregg Popovich era (until this season) for winning with a very methodical offense to complement a superb and stifling style of defense. So look for the Lakers to ugly it up and play the style of game that helped the Spurs win multiple NBA titles. 

This prognostication isn't filled with much on trends or tendencies (although there is ample info through our Bovada data tool on the Home page) because there is little to go on that's relevant in the absence of Bryant. To me, the only data from which we can learn much is how LA has done offensively since Bryant went down, and they have not fared well. 

So again, look for the Lakers to slow things down, ugly this one up, and to make defense rule the day. One of the two teams might get to 90 tonight (most likely the Spurs), but if they do, it won't be by much. On this one, I'm going to be riding high by playing low.

My pick:  Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio     under 188

UPDATE:

Result ... San Antonio 102 Los Angeles Laker 91     total points = 193     over covers

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