Finishing on a High Note

Published on 02-May-2013 by Steve Soprano
Basketball - NBA / NBA Daily Stake

Finishing on a High Note

Thursday the Golden State Warriors get their first chance at home to close out their first round playoff series with the Denver Nuggets.

Golden State leads the series, 3-2.

The Nuggets won Game 5 on Tue 30 April, 107-100, and did a good job in taking the Warriors out of their game in doing so. Golden State guard Stephen Curry was limited to 15 points on 7-of-19 shooting from the field as the Warriors spotted Denver 20 points at the half, which proved to be too big of a hill to climb the rest of the way.

Since we are into trends around here, let's look at the last game Curry had that was similar to Game 5. It was back in Game 1 when he scored 19. The next time out, he responded with 30, and the Warriors rolled to a 131-117 win in Denver. It's just hard to fathom Curry having two sub-par nights in a row, and anything below 20 is very much sub-par for him. The same goes for the Warriors as a team. Their 100-point output in Game 5 was their lowest of the series since Game 1, when they fell five points shy of the century mark. So I look for Golden State to take advantage of getting back to their home court and regrouping tonight. That includes their getting by Bovada's slim 2½-point spread.

Now, let's talk totals. You can find using our Bovada data tool on the Home page that the Warriors are in a much more 'golden' state at home in these playoffs, scoring 115 and 110 thus far and also lighting up the scoreboard at a higher rate than during the regular season. And don't expect the early shooting woes that slowed Curry and company in Denver Tuesday night in the first half ... not at home, and not with that crowd to feed off of. Plus, if you subscribe to the thoery of  "as goes Curry, so go the Warriors" (which I do), then not only do I see a Golden State win and cover tonight but a game that passes Bovada's total of 212. This may be the biggest home court advantage in the playoffs in front of the Oracle Arnea crowd, and look for Golden State to use their high-octane offense to get them into the act.  Both games at Golden State have gone over, and the Warriors have covered both. It's hard to see where those two scenarios don't play out again.

My picks: Golden St     -2.5     over 212

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UPDATE:

Result ... Golden State 92 Denver 88     Warriors cover     total = 180     under covers

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