Back to the Basics

I'm riding a two-game losing steak with entries here, and that's not sitting real well with me.

I'm not here to publicly post losing plays on a regular basis, and those taking these tips to the betting window aren't doing so to play losers. So let's get back to cashing in tickets instead of tossing them in the garbage, and let's look at a historically proven method to end a skid and end it, pronto!

Now, Spanish lingo is the perfect segue to get things started, because I'm looking at Mexican-born Jorge de la Rosa and the Colorado Rockies to get tangled in an old fashioned Coors Field slugfest, making the over 9½ the play in this one.  De la Rosa (11-9, 4.44 ERA) has actually been very good when pitching at the friendly confines this season.  His earned run average at Coors Field (3.23) is more than two runs better than his road ERA, which is well over 5. Herein lies the problem for de la Rosa: he hasn't pitched at home in quite a while and hasn't been very good at all on the road recently.

So do you think goining back to Coors Field is going to cure his recent struggles? I don't.

And speaking of recent struggles, that's exactly what Reds starter Alfredo Simón has endured since the All-Star break. The righty is 0-4 since then and is doing all he can to keep his ERA under 5 in that span. Making matters worse is the fact that he has already been beaten around by the Rockies this season.

As you can see by using the Bovada data tool on our Home page, Simón suffered through a disasterous three-inning performance against the Rox, where he yielded 8 hits and 5 earned runs in an 11-2 loss in Cincinnati back in May.

Over players can get more comfort by looking at Bovada's Top 3/Bottom 3 chart that reveals a trove of data pertaining to these two teams lighting up the scoreboard.

And of course, any offensive numbers for Colorado are always better than season figures like those shown when they are playing at home. When there, they hit better for average, for power, and score more runs.  

I see both teams crossing the plate more than normal tonight, combining the venue and the starting pitchers' recent struggles. Play this game over, and let's get back on track before we get a heavy dose of football starting tomorrow.

My pick:  Cincinnati at Colorado   over 9½

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Result:  Colorado 7 Cincinnati 3     total = 10     over covers

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